What are the consequences for long-time MNKD stock holders if Al decides to sell the company? Any estimates for the share price at sell?
bankerman & all, Al did say 10x his investment,but dont forget his&ours........it's 10x 2billion=20billion. dont forget Al has 1bil +1bill us. There will be no buyout until the factory lines are expanded and possibly another factory built to keep up with demand......then the FULL potential of Afrezza will be realized..........giving the company a price tag. during the next few years of afrezza use.......we may see some amazing results like condition reversal,weight loss..........and who knows,maybe Al will redefine new terms & conditions into the field of diabetes. when mannkind is partnered or sold.......keep in mind....there is afrezza, the platform(used for other drugs), the factory(s), the device........like one rose opening up into many petals.JMHO
goodbrain005........I think Al's goal of 10-100 times his original investment refers to HIS monies....Not ours! However, updating my earlier (but confusing) posts yesterday, assuming Al has $1B invested ($930M as of now)......and he owns approximately 225M shares (45% of 500MM at FDA approval).....that would equate to a share price of $45 at time of company buyout.
Assuming NO buyout at approval....but a strong partnership with a GLOBAL partner....I would expect the share price to be around $20 at that time ( this price discounts the potential value assigned to the Technosphere science, Cancer drug pipeline, fully functional manufacturing plant (presently capable of producing Afrezza for 250k patients), R&D, etc.,
There are other ways to assign value to Mannkind...the most frequent of which is a Price to forward looking Earning ratio. However, the "times" factor has been all over the place! From simple estimtes to industry averages to biotech startup estimates. I still think, when all is said and done, that Al will make his decision based upon HIS expectations......and not any prescribed formulas!
Finally, and I can tell you this is confirmed directly from the source, Al's history has been to develop companies.....and then sell them......period! Therefore, it is highly doubtful that he will own the company long enough to finish the buildout of the manufacturing plant in Danbury, CT. So......shareholder value going forward would be the value of the stock at the time of purchase, combined with the value of any stock exchange.
If a buyout does occur, I would expect it to be a combination of cash and stock due to the size of the buyout. In all may not be a bad idea. Cash upfront to shareholders and stock in the future compnay which probably recieves a dividend.