So many deals are done PRIOR to data being released.
They have EXPLICITLY said they are talking to potential partners for MONTHS upon months.
The official data is NOW in the hands of those partners.
Just look at what happened to Gilead after they acquired Pharmasett.
Gilead had $30 Billion Market Cap 18 months ago.
They acquired Pharmasett for $11 Billion.
Gilead has $80 Billion Market Cap 18 months later! That is PAYING UP for a quality return!!!
The Merck's of the world must be looking at that deal and DROOLING!!!
Why not here? Why not throw Mann $5 to $10 Billion and watch as you gain a MEGA Treatment (looking out 1 to 4 years) and have your market cap Sky rocket over the next 2 years!
Still think there is too much RISK NOT to partner with MNKD.
Imagine being the company that has to look back and see a competitor grab MNKD and see 2017 Annual Sales of $5 Billion?
Merck COULD LOSE $4 Billion in annual sales if the accusations of their diabetes drug causing cancer get proven.
Still think MERCK may be the most likely suitor / partner.
You keep talking about a deal, and a $5 Billion range. If you are referring to a buy-out, then you know absolutely nothing about Al Mann and his history, IMO.
Al has held on to every one of his major companies until they were well established in the market place before he sold them. Mannkind carries his name and is his biggest project yet, and there is just no way whatsoever that he would sell anytime soon. You might as well get used to the fact that this is not a short term glory hunter stock. For those who understand the situation and are patient enough to hold on for the long term, it will probably yield a PPS of $50+ in 4 or 5 years from now.
A Deal Value in the $5 Billion Range would be $13 +/-.
Think it may trade to $9 to MAYBE $10 if that is what the market will see as the strongest probability over the coming weeks / few months.
A Deal Value in the $7 to $8 Billion Range would be $17 to $20 per share.
If the market sees that level as more realistic maybe it trades to $12 +/-.
Still looking at $2,000 per year per patient at 1.5 Million patients per year (doesn't that seem more than realistic?) doing $3 Billion PER YEAR in revenue?
Really - you can see why some are throwing around valuations of $10 to $15 Billion as fairly reassonable possibilities.
We shall see.
Assuming any possible acquisition AND OR deal would value MNKD at $5 Billion ($13 +/- per share) on the low side over the coming 30 to 60 days +/-.......
A discount of that valuation would be $9 to $10 near term.
Do not see many folks stating $5 Billion would be a HIGH valuation based upon the block buster potential. It seems that would be a fairly low valuation based upon the potential projections of the potential.
Aren't there 350 Million + people World wide ith diabetes?
Aren't there 50+/- Million in the USA / Europe?
Would there be a reasonable expectation that eventually (3 to 5 years from approval date) that 5%+ of those would be VERY interested in not taking a shot prior to mealtime?
That equates to 2.5 Million people in the USA and Europe. That equates to $5 Billion per year.
What if it is 10%? 5 Million people. That equates to $10 Billion PER YEAR.
Why wouldn't a big player take a risk (ala Gilead) and go after these guys in a big big way????
Find interesting that a company like MNKD within a whisker of approval a couple years ago....combined with the possible dire straits of the existing treatments.
MRK is at risk of losing $4 Billion per year in revenues!! 10% of their annual revenue!!
It would seem forking over $5 Billion+ to get MNKD would be an insurance policy.
I think a deal could happen at any time. Not in the $4 or $5 Billion range though. They have $10 Billion insulin stock pile and two plants that are easily worth $500M. If a sale happens soon, look for it to be in the $15B range and not $4 to $5. My 2 cents.