My guess is, assuming success in both trials, that MNKD will have about $6 billion in revenue by 2022 (including technosphere licenses and future products) and at say 10 X sales it should have a share price of say $85, figuring a partner to split things up with. As for now, sans certain trial success and FDA approval, what is it worth? A $2 billion market cap seems quite fair. With success in both trials, $12 seems reasonable. With trial success and a BP partnership, plus FDA approval, $25 to $30 seems reasonable within 24 to 30 months.
If I remember correctly, MNKD is already working with some outfit to develop, utilizing technosphere, a super pain-killer which would take effect almost immediately, be 100 times more powerful than morphine, and I think non-addictive as well. No doubt years away though, unless the pain-killer is a drug already approved, even then it will be years away just maybe not 10 years.
One caveat, if the market takes a long long overdue 'real' correction, sort of like the second leg of the great depression, then all these figures are just gibberish as you could see MNKD selling for $1.00 even if they hit the endpoints, just depends on the timing and if Bernanke finally loses control of this house of cards he has erected. Remember, we trade pieces of paper, and that is only if we request them and wait for like 8 weeks - they are really worth only what someone else is willing to pay for them. Didn't the second leg down in the great depression see the market lose like 80% of its 'value' before bottoming, or was it even worse?
I hope you guys realize this is a DNDN, VVUS in the making. Too high of expectations will lead to sharp sell-off when FDA process take too long, or when partnership doesn't happen or when launch is slow.
DNDN was run by an idiot and had a quite weak business model, not to mention soooo many other specifics which set the two companies and their products vastly apart. BTW, DNDN's short interest was quite a bit higher just prior to that massive short squeeze which sent their shares rocketing above $55, but you could still see something of the sort occur with MNKD providing all the trial endpoints are met. Of course MNKD has already nearly tripled of the recent lows, but we could still see a nice, but shortlived, share price spike into heavily overbought territory. Mind you MNKD's market cap is already $2 billion. Can't see any way that MNKD's share prices spikes like 2000 percent as was the case for when MNKD went from $2.70ish to $57.
The value of MNKD will be determined by one thing only...
Whether there are multiple potential partners ready to partner or buyout. That is it.
Think about it...the FDA approval is most likely close to a lock at this point. IF...IF that is a true statement then the question is only this...
Who are the potential partners and how big do THEY think Afrezza and the Technosphere technology can go in the intermediate and long term.
If there are multiple companies believing that MNKD offers huge potential upside then the current $7 per share could be literally a fraction of the eventual price...IF....IF the suitors are out there ready to deal.
If it is a potential multi billion annual revenue product MNKD could...could trade to $15 to $20 before the data is released in about 8 +\- weeks. Simply stated....once that assumed positive data is released to the public...the pressure on potential partners to complete a deal will be enormous.
Maybe a Merck does what Gilead did with Pharmasett. Get the deal done pre release of data and pre application for approval.
75 million diagnosed T2 diabetics in the Western world by 2020.
Currently no effective treatment to address the cause of the disease and stop progression. Afrezza can fill that void.
Average reimbursement for insulin (used mostly in T1 patients) is $1K+ per patient per year.
There is no competition in sight for Afrezza.
Even with very modest penetration rates into the rapidly growing T2 segment, the valuation numbers get crazy very quickly.
And then there is Technosphere. I hope I'll be around long enough to need a sniff of Viagra every now and then, hopefully with Technosphere.
What is Mannkind worth? Well as an investor in this company for about 8 years I have seen all kinds of questimates from absurd to unbelievable. From the Lilly buyout rumor at 12-15 to a future 4 digit stock price. In truth I know it is somewhere between those figures. I am a believer in the science on over 6000 patients over a decade. I know that there is no other comparable treatment on the horizon that comes close to what Afrezza can do. I know the man behind the company is an supreme innovator who over his lifetime has been able to accomplish what he sees. There is more to this company than Afrezza! Afrezza was envisioned as only the begininng and Al has hinted as such. Does Al speek in hyperbole? Many would say yes but I would say perhaps, so I listened very closely to what he says and try to understand what he envisions. So when I hear him joke that perhaps in 5 years mannkind buying Merk a 150 billion market cap company I know he is exhibiting hyperbole but I also know there is a string of truth to what he sees. Folks, you can slice it dice it, anyway you want this company will be worth a lot more in multiple than it is worth today! There will be down days, there will be doubt but the trend will ultimately be higher. Good Luck
Thanks Hammer. You have the right perspective! We don't have all the answers yet, but given time, this company will be worth a lot of money. Patient investors will be handsomely rewarded!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
" in 5 years mannkind buying Merk a 150 billion market cap company ....". I believe this statement. That's also the reason his latest company name is "Mannkind". This company will stand on it's own for ever. It will be his legacy and so it will never be sold, IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm not expert on this stuff. Please correct me where I'm wrong :)
The company has negative earnings and more liabilities than assets, so speaking in terms of its revenue and finances, the company not worth very much. All the buying you see and the valuations you read about are pure speculation on the future of Afrezza and what revenue it may generate for the company.
Assuming FDA approval is granted, I believe the market will be huge assuming production ramps up sufficiently and insurance companies and medical institutions get behind it . The inconspicuous delivery method and performance benefits aside, I think it has huge growth potential in foreign markets due to refrigeration not being required. I think it will be a global product and the "new normal" for diabetes treatment.
My personal speculation is that there will be a huge emotionally-driven spike to $15-20 after approval that will then settle back down to pre-approval levels of $12-15 per share, which will then rise back up as partnerships/buyouts/profits become a reality.
Again, that's purely a guess. If this all goes right, I expect to see the $35-40 per share in the long term.
What is MNKD worth---when? Now or five years out?
If the diabetes market world wide now is $40B and MNKD has the #1 product to treat diabetes, what is the company worth? With no revenue at this point, the valuation would be based only on what MNKD and it's prospective partners envision it's value downstream (combined with Technosphere); the value therefore is determined by the eyes of the beholder. In the case of Al Mann, it's off the scale and that has been a key factor in why a partnership has yet to be consummated BUT, it is coming and coming soon .
earlier estimate of others on the pps are as follows
complete trials $5-6
success trials 10-12 (already near that range)
big pharma partner after top line 20-30
after fda approval 40 plus
i think all may be higher as we have already seen, hope this helps
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Clevans makes more sense on future values and I totally agree with you that this will go to double digits soon. I am in it and expect 22 ++ after approval... The future is in MNKD and every one should own some.
Sentiment: Strong Buy