Short Version -
CELG P/S of ~ 8.2
BIIB P/S of ~ 8.4
MNKD with 30% capture by 2018 of a $32 billion global insulin market, assuming a P/S metric of 8, with approx. 500 million shares outstanding by then, equates to a MNKD share price of ~ $168
*Assuming roughly a 25% profit margin......partnership of course will affect projections, unless MNKD can still maintain approx. a 25% profit margin from partners sales.
Nice 'best case' scenario. Maybe with licensing deals on the Technosphere technology and collaborations with other entities on products like the inhalation pain-killer MNKD is apparently already working on, maybe we get to $65 per share - but still a nice effort. As 'kepler2stars' already pointed out, apparently only about 1/3 of that $32 billion 2018 insulin market will be prandial alone - assuming he is correct of course. Still, Afrezza stands to be a huge success if we have success in both trials.
There are a few caveats, IMO:
Approximately 1/3 of the insulin market is basal, 1/3 is basal/prandial pre-mix, and only 1/3 is prandial.
Also, the Affinity 2 study compares Afrezza to placebo in insulin naive T2 patients, and that will be the most important target population for Afrezza after approval. The existing insulin market is a secondary target, IMO.
Darn, you are right about the basal/prandial split, though I don't have figures for the whether it is a roughly equal 3-way split as regards dollars spent or the percentages you allude to. The insulin naïve market being the 'most important' target population (financially lucrative?) is interesting, hadn't figured that into the mix, but by 2018 who knows what might be. Well, even $50 to $60 by 2018 is a huge increase. And as others have pointed out, there is the base platform technology which Afrezza is derived from. In the long run, Technosphere may be as lucrative as a successful commercialization of Affrezza, or in a buyout it may double the price MNKD can receive vs. just Afrezza alone. Al Mann is getting up there in years, and he does have a track record of selling his companies, so I wouldn't be surprised if MNKD is sold within 2 to 3 years for some figure north of $60.
Excellent points - new it was too good to be realistic! LOL
I will take $35, or there abouts, in the next 2 years and be very very happy - anything greater by 2018 is just that much better. Of course by 2018/2019, who knows what other products, collaborations, or licensing deals MNKD may have achieved for the Technoshere technology - if MNKD hasn't been acquired for $50 or $60 per share by then.
All h*ell will break loose if both trials are deemed successful, as I just don't see how the FDA could deny approval. I am looking for about $18 to $22 if the two trials are a success, just on short covering. The figures seem workable if all goes well, but that rarely happens though Celgene has done it and they seem a good model. My guess is we partner and the shares are about $35 in two years, after that who knows. A lot would have to go almost perfectly for MNKD shares to get anywhere near $165 by 2018, but it is possible I guess.
Nothing surprises me when it comes to the absolutely corrupt FDA, but it does seem they would have a hard time justifying another CRL if both trials meet those endpoints. I mean, superior is superior, and that translates to far less medical burden to the insurance establishment over the long course of the disease......vast savings over time. Huge additional potential if Afrezza can be utilized as SOC for the vast pre-diabetic population, but that may be a ways out still.
Yeah, I look for the shorts to start bailing the closer to August we get. I would love it if Al dropped a bombshell and announced the positive data news BEFORE August. You talk about a short squeeze of major proportions! WOW, can you imagine how fast this thing would take off! GLTAL!