In right before both the CRLs, we had highest share price of no more than $10. Since then we have had significant dilution. Now understood that confidence level on trial is high but how in their sane mind people are projecting $12 to $20 share prices post the data release and prior to approval ? Mathematically it just doesn't make sense. The market potential has not changed. Diabetic patient pool and the potential of inhaled insulin has not magically changed since last CRLs.
So if market put the SP at $10 during runup before last CRL, I don't see any reason why this time it should cross any thing beyond $9 prior to approval. Post approval share price can't be more than double ($18) provided they have some licensing deal in place. if they are going solo, it will be no more than $11-$13.
In conclusion, my logical analysis says that most of the upside is already reflected in the current share price as long as the pre-approval time frame is concerned.
Not sure on this board any one is thinking in their right mind.
With 30% of the float shorted right now, this is a coiled spring ready to pop. When the results come out or a partner is announced, the move will not be rational. MannKind's Irrational Exuberance.
From the time of the last crl, the market potential for MNKD has increased by the size of the T2 market and the size of that market inclusive of early treatment, just after orals stop working. From everything I've read, this is a market considerably larger than what was first in MNKD's sights during the first two submissions. This is what justifies a price range as high, if not higher, than the previous run ups.
Going to venture in here. Not sure what the end price is but think we could see $12 on announcement of two positive results. I know that those on board with MNKD prior to the last CRL have seen dilution of approx an additional +300% (ish). But one needs to note that with the additional Type 2 trials potential market has also increased by 900% (10% T1 + 90% T2). I know this is not FDA announcement time either but using the numbers and past performance of the stock if 10 was reached before the last CRL:
Share price pre CRL / share increase X new market potential
=10 / (1+3) * (1+9)
= $10 / 400% * 1000%
Don't really believe $25 but $12 I see as being reachable and after that...post FDA decision (positive)add an additional $12/share for each million patients.
Enjoy the day,
Sentiment: Strong Buy
You've explained the fundamental argument. There's also the other things known this time around such as the FDA chemist + Shkreli saga. Whether or not Wall Street funds is behind or against MNKD has always been a major element. This time around Wall Street is on the side of the longs due to what's been mentioned already.
Even with your numbers you're telling everyone that it would be a 20% gain from here prior to approval and then potentially over 230% gain from here with an approval and licensing deal...so you've answered your own question....how about that ;-)
Sentiment: Strong Buy