Just from a hypothetical perspective... if this fails these p3 trials, what happens to the company, pps, technology and the know-how? Will there be any possibility to maintain a $2/share price? What would the likely bottom be?
!. The patents of technosphere technology is worth a pretty penny. Numerous commercialized drugs could use the technology to extend their own product protection. This of course includes the device and corresponding patents for dry powder inhalation into the deep lung.
2. The cancer drugs are also worth a decent amount. In the past several hundred million has been attributed to the line up. Perhaps this is not current but there is benefit.
3. If all else fails, China may become the owner of the most innovative drug in the diabetic spectrum. There current and future need of this drug/device easily outpaces that of the US. Congress will step in and try to stop this sale of course since it puts the United States in a disadvantage due to national economic security. At this juncture, Congress also starts to twist the arm of big pharma to come to some reasonable purchase or partnership with Mr. Mann in order to maintain our pharmacologic economic security.
4. Afrezza is Mannkinds first attempt at a commercial drug. The future and past pps estimates have been based solely on the success of Afrezza. Once the device is approved the experts will then adjust the numbers to account for the spectrum of other agents which will be delivered by pulmonary route.
If T1 trials fail but T2 succeeds, they will submit for approval for T2 with the dreamboat inhaler and T1 with the medtone inhaler (which was to be approved in 2011). Afrezza would still have a future - the stock would tank no doubt but there will still be value. I won't entertain a scenario for T2 failing as that's not really in the realm of possibility. Lastly the technosphere patent and stored insulin have some value.