Two week downward channel with an aberration candle to the upside on the data news representing some covering with the downward trend resuming immediately on the news. What looked like a potential flag formation with a potential break above $6.87 area representing a potential reversal/breakout just broke down.
Reached the $6.20 level we discussed last night. Has already broken through 50 day - Looking at a 3 month daily candle chart, if it cuts down into the gap up candle from $5.50, then it will likely retrace to that level - $5.50 . So far, it looks like the shorts are playing this as a short for the next 8 months without partner news. They'll pressure it as much as they can and the stop losses being taken out on the downtrend are helping and retail capitulation is helping. They likely shorted more on the data day, so short interest will likely climb. The Deerfield payment is positive, but the war will be based on the immediate leverage on all fronts a partnership will bring, and it looks like the shorts are playing post-FDA approval partnership news. The lower volume window here in August post the news, with the markets retracing temporarily or flat, even with macro risk off with the Egypt climbing volatility affecting all risk considerations, WITH THIS DOWNTREND, leaves the pps temporarily vulnerable. The 50 broke. I don't believe MNKD gets to its 200. It could certainly reach $5.50 considering the movement the last two weeks. The high share count in a low volume window, again, leaves it vulnerable to naked shorting in order to ultimately accumulate long and cover from the lowest range possible. The long play becomes extraordinarily attractive anywhere below $5.50 in my view, but the shorting is fueling selling and the selling is giving the short pressure more leverage here. Don't time a reversal at this point. Let it turn.
Your posts are well thought out with regards to both technicals and market sentiment. It is a pleasure reading your views as they are very calculated, logical, and devoid of the normal BS that most posters spew on these message boards. Thanks for sharing!!
Less than 30% of the float has traded in the last three days.
There is serious distribution here by retailers, but structural shares - 70% of the shares in the official present float (not including the MMs liquidity shares or shares that are shorted or available to short) - are still held and there are no SEC Filings of insider sales as of today. As brutal a 3 days as it's been, this has to re-trace in order for the new institutional entry points to reveal themselves at these lower levels. What's left unknown as of today near-term has given the shorts momentum as retailers sell here. It's real. For those in from sub-$2 to $2.60 or $2.60 to $4.00, there's immense profit still built in. Re-tracement is the way a stronger long-term base will be built and the sooner that is in place, with the remaining positive catalysts playing out one by one for Mannkind ahead, the sooner the market capitalization and price value will move to much higher ranges.
Retailers are granted high risk Act Ones by the market. On data confirmation, with risk - mitigation in play, institutions are usually left on the stage by Act Two. That transfer has been the case more often than not. They don't want the risk, but they have the liquidity and time-horizon for longer, more gradual upside than retailers usually do. Opportunity cost comes into play, as well as profit erosion, in catalyst vacuums. In this context, the shorts and the MMs and the institutional longs all work together, directly or indirectly. As of the data two days ago, THEY ALL WANT A LOWER SHARE PRICE NEAR-TERM. As that screw is turned, natural retail selling on ther climb accelerates and it gets tough, near-term at least. Great story long.
Institutions do not accumulate with data clarity in the upper quarter of a share's value after a one year climb from $ to nearly $9. - It's not the way the market works, and in the context of this post-key-catalyst vacuum, and in the context of the lack of clarity regarding the timing of a partnership announcement, and now, in the context of some broader market risk - off, profits will be taken, this retraces as it has, and we begin again from new levels. Great story, but this has to re-set for the next run. $5.50 is the mid-point of the run from $2 to $9, so that's, at this point, possible.
Here's a potential scenario for absolute short-destruction:
The share price re-traces as it has to this level down to $5.50. The distribution ends. It consolidates, stabilizes, and it is accumulated by Mannkind's partner BEFORE their announcement.
Al Mann buys additional shares at the lowest near-term range and there's an FORM 4 S.E.C. Filing. It's the shot across the bow.
Mann Kind announces a Reverse Split to reduce the float.
We move into an anticipated FDA approval. Approval is announced.
The partnership is announced.
There's a successful launch with accelerating sales and revenue growth with Mannkind having negotiated a substantial down payment and attractive terms with their partner, which on strong numbers, points to a buyout at a substantial premium.
That's all within 1 year -
Long MNKD will be an extraordinary play. It's WHY we have this re-tracement.