I just wanted to show some very simple calculations here, on what MNKD's stock price could potential be, based upon different market penetration scenarios. For this purpose, the following facts/assumptions will be used:
- US diabetic population = 25 million
- EU diabetic population = 60 million
- P/E of 15 used (fairly conservative P/E)
- Average annual sales per Afrezza user = $2000
- After tax earnings per user = 10% or $200 (fairly conservative after tax net earnings per user)
- Total number of MNKD shares = 500 million (even fully diluted, share count would only be about 450 million)
Scenario 1 - 5% of US diabetic mkt
PPS = (.05 X 25 million X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $7.50 PPS
Other scenarios based upon only U.S. diabetic market penetration
10% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $7.5 = $15.00 PPS
15% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $7.5 = $22.50 PPS
20% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $7.5 = $30.00 PPS
25% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $7.5 = $37.50 PPS
30% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $7.5 = $45.00 PPS
35% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $7.5 = $52.50 PPS
Scenario 2 - 5% of US/EU diabetic mkt combined
PPS = (.05 X (25 million + 60 million) X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $25.50
Other scenarios based upon combined US/EU diabetic market penetration
10% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $25.50 = $51.00 PPS
15% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $25.50 = $76.50 PPS
20% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $25.50 = $102.00 PPS
25% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $25.50 = $127.50 PPS
30% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $25.50 = $153.00 PPS
35% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $25.50 = $178.50 PPS
Please note, 77% of the world's diabetic population resides outside of the U.S. and European Union. So when you start taking into consideration total worldwide sales potential, the numbers start going off the chart.
I also want to point out again, I have used very conservative numbers related to P/E, net earning percent per user, and share count. Note, above estimates for only Afrezza sales alone.
These financial models are useful as a framework for valuation. But it is the real world that determines the value. Example: Obesity is a huge problem. Why then are VVUS and ARNA trading at low values? Maybe something between cup and lip? Unless you know exactly how the market will respond, your model is just a model.
Of importance to longs are the financial models in the hands of potential partners.
Unless you have reviewed all the Afrezza clinical trial results, and compared them against all of the Exubera clinical trial results, your post means nothing. In addition, the summation of the Afrezza clinical trial results must also be compared against the clinical trial results on the FDA approved labels for the top two RAA's which control over 80% of the market, as well as against the clinical trial results on the FDA approved label for Lantus (a basal insulin) when used with oral agents for treating type 2 diabetics.
Most people that make comments such as yours have completely failed to due their research and due diligence. You may make all the "off the cuff negative remarks" you want. However, the clinical results, plus at least four different market surveys of diabetics and what they would prefer, and in addition at least one "inhaled insulin" market analysis by one of the big three pharms that dominate the insulin market show strong support that Afrezza will be a blockbuster success.
Ford failed twice with two prior car companies before the third company we know as Ford became a phenomenal success. There are many highly successful drugs on the market that followed other drugs, treating similar diseases, that failed. If your comment reflects the entire basis of your position with regard to Afrezza, then all you have done is indicate what an uninformed investor you are. However, thank you for bumping the post.
You forgot one more scenario where MNKD gets 100% penetration of ALL word markets and has a PPS of over $200,000/share. Come on really! Who are you trying to sway to buy with these numbers. Its a $5 stock right now with no product, no revenue, no sales and NO APPROVAL. Let's talk again in 3-5 years when we have a few more pieces fully defined.
I don't agree or disagree with those projections but josephanastasiw's absurd post displays absolutely no understanding of the market's method for valuation. For example, AMZN is selling at $300 + per share and very.scant earnings, while AAPL has big earnings but has fallen significnatly from highs. It is the prospect of future eps that investors have to be willing to pay for in advance and discount back to a present value and it is clear that you are not to be swayed. So have fun but don't deride an honest intellectual effort..