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MannKind Corp. Message Board

  • pfg_01 pfg_01 Aug 20, 2013 4:47 PM Flag

    Some simple projections on MNKD's potential stock value

    I just wanted to show some very simple calculations here, on what MNKD's stock price could potential be, based upon different market penetration scenarios. For this purpose, the following facts/assumptions will be used:

    - US diabetic population = 25 million
    - EU diabetic population = 60 million
    - P/E of 15 used (fairly conservative P/E)
    - Average annual sales per Afrezza user = $2000
    - After tax earnings per user = 10% or $200 (fairly conservative after tax net earnings per user)
    - Total number of MNKD shares = 500 million (even fully diluted, share count would only be about 450 million)

    Scenario 1 - 5% of US diabetic mkt
    PPS = (.05 X 25 million X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $7.50 PPS

    Other scenarios based upon only U.S. diabetic market penetration

    10% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $7.5 = $15.00 PPS
    15% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $7.5 = $22.50 PPS
    20% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $7.5 = $30.00 PPS
    25% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $7.5 = $37.50 PPS
    30% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $7.5 = $45.00 PPS
    35% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $7.5 = $52.50 PPS

    Scenario 2 - 5% of US/EU diabetic mkt combined
    PPS = (.05 X (25 million + 60 million) X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $25.50

    Other scenarios based upon combined US/EU diabetic market penetration

    10% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $25.50 = $51.00 PPS
    15% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $25.50 = $76.50 PPS
    20% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $25.50 = $102.00 PPS
    25% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $25.50 = $127.50 PPS
    30% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $25.50 = $153.00 PPS
    35% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $25.50 = $178.50 PPS

    Please note, 77% of the world's diabetic population resides outside of the U.S. and European Union. So when you start taking into consideration total worldwide sales potential, the numbers start going off the chart.

    I also want to point out again, I have used very conservative numbers related to P/E, net earning percent per user, and share count. Note, above estimates for only Afrezza sales alone.

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MNKD
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