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# MannKind Corp. Message Board

• pfg_01 pfg_01 Aug 20, 2013 4:47 PM Flag

## Some simple projections on MNKD's potential stock value

I just wanted to show some very simple calculations here, on what MNKD's stock price could potential be, based upon different market penetration scenarios. For this purpose, the following facts/assumptions will be used:

- US diabetic population = 25 million
- EU diabetic population = 60 million
- P/E of 15 used (fairly conservative P/E)
- Average annual sales per Afrezza user = \$2000
- After tax earnings per user = 10% or \$200 (fairly conservative after tax net earnings per user)
- Total number of MNKD shares = 500 million (even fully diluted, share count would only be about 450 million)

Scenario 1 - 5% of US diabetic mkt
PPS = (.05 X 25 million X \$2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = \$7.50 PPS

Other scenarios based upon only U.S. diabetic market penetration

10% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X \$7.5 = \$15.00 PPS
15% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X \$7.5 = \$22.50 PPS
20% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X \$7.5 = \$30.00 PPS
25% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X \$7.5 = \$37.50 PPS
30% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X \$7.5 = \$45.00 PPS
35% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X \$7.5 = \$52.50 PPS

Scenario 2 - 5% of US/EU diabetic mkt combined
PPS = (.05 X (25 million + 60 million) X \$2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = \$25.50

Other scenarios based upon combined US/EU diabetic market penetration

10% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X \$25.50 = \$51.00 PPS
15% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X \$25.50 = \$76.50 PPS
20% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X \$25.50 = \$102.00 PPS
25% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X \$25.50 = \$127.50 PPS
30% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X \$25.50 = \$153.00 PPS
35% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X \$25.50 = \$178.50 PPS

Please note, 77% of the world's diabetic population resides outside of the U.S. and European Union. So when you start taking into consideration total worldwide sales potential, the numbers start going off the chart.

I also want to point out again, I have used very conservative numbers related to P/E, net earning percent per user, and share count. Note, above estimates for only Afrezza sales alone.

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