I just wanted to show some very simple calculations here, on what MNKD's stock price could potential be, based upon different market penetration scenarios. For this purpose, the following facts/assumptions will be used:
- US diabetic population = 25 million
- EU diabetic population = 60 million
- P/E of 15 used (fairly conservative P/E)
- Average annual sales per Afrezza user = $2000
- After tax earnings per user = 10% or $200 (fairly conservative after tax net earnings per user)
- Total number of MNKD shares = 500 million (even fully diluted, share count would only be about 450 million)
Scenario 1 - 5% of US diabetic mkt
PPS = (.05 X 25 million X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $7.50 PPS
Other scenarios based upon only U.S. diabetic market penetration
10% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $7.5 = $15.00 PPS
15% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $7.5 = $22.50 PPS
20% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $7.5 = $30.00 PPS
25% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $7.5 = $37.50 PPS
30% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $7.5 = $45.00 PPS
35% US diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $7.5 = $52.50 PPS
Scenario 2 - 5% of US/EU diabetic mkt combined
PPS = (.05 X (25 million + 60 million) X $2000 X 10%) / 500 million X 15 = $25.50
Other scenarios based upon combined US/EU diabetic market penetration
10% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 2 X $25.50 = $51.00 PPS
15% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $25.50 = $76.50 PPS
20% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 4 X $25.50 = $102.00 PPS
25% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 5 X $25.50 = $127.50 PPS
30% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 6 X $25.50 = $153.00 PPS
35% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 7 X $25.50 = $178.50 PPS
Please note, 77% of the world's diabetic population resides outside of the U.S. and European Union. So when you start taking into consideration total worldwide sales potential, the numbers start going off the chart.
I also want to point out again, I have used very conservative numbers related to P/E, net earning percent per user, and share count. Note, above estimates for only Afrezza sales alone.
You forgot one more scenario where MNKD gets 100% penetration of ALL word markets and has a PPS of over $200,000/share. Come on really! Who are you trying to sway to buy with these numbers. Its a $5 stock right now with no product, no revenue, no sales and NO APPROVAL. Let's talk again in 3-5 years when we have a few more pieces fully defined.
I don't agree or disagree with those projections but josephanastasiw's absurd post displays absolutely no understanding of the market's method for valuation. For example, AMZN is selling at $300 + per share and very.scant earnings, while AAPL has big earnings but has fallen significnatly from highs. It is the prospect of future eps that investors have to be willing to pay for in advance and discount back to a present value and it is clear that you are not to be swayed. So have fun but don't deride an honest intellectual effort..
Ok, I'll be conservative also. I'll assume 5 years out we will be at 15% US/EU diabetic mkt, PPS = 3 X $25.50 = $76.50 PPS with my 13K shares that would look nice in my IRA, VERY NICE. Thanks pfg and they want 'em for 6 bucks? Naaah.
Good practical, example provided by CWA. 13,000 shares at a PPS of $76.50, which would only require a 15% US/EU market penetration, would be worth $994,500.00, or just about a million dollars. That should certainly give a boost to his or her retirement account!!!
you are under estimating, which diabetic patient prefers needles over inhale? I would say almost 100%. The only time injection may be preferable over inhale is in hospital setting where the patients already had an intravenous line. Every health profession that I spoke to about this inhale insulin is very interested; I don't know if they will buy but they are very interested.
Market for insulin is $20 bill/yr. let's assume they get $18 bill of that. What is the justifiable pps on annual rev of 18 bill? Plus, technosphere can be used in any 1000's of drugs out there. Most injectibles can be converted to inhale.
THIS IS VERY BIG
IV insulin? Not sure that is common.
Do you understand this is not a complete replacement for diabetic insulin, rather a mealtime insulin? This idea of getting rid of needles completely is not true.
Estimated PPS on $18 billion in annual sales would be $54.00 PS.
The formula is ($18 billion X 10%) / 500 million X 15.
The 10% is the percent of net profit after taxes.
The 500 million is share count
The 15 is the P/E multiplier.
You are absolutely correct in MNKD potentially earning revenue from technosphere licensing agreements, with other companies, or for other drugs Mannkind themselves develop in the future. Due to that, I noted in my original comment quote: "... estimates for only Afrezza sales alone."
However, based upon typical time it takes to develop, test, and obtain FDA approval there does not appear to be any other drug using technosphere technology that is within 5 years plus of being marketed.
I love the idea of 178.50 (by what pfg....2018?) and is this if they go it alone or with partner or with buyout and buy what date? I guess who really knows... but one thing.. with AL on fox. (granted the interview sucked), Al would not have gone on that show and end his legacy if he didn't think or KNOW... (oh... and remember of course it's going to work)... his very convincing statement.
. FDA wasn't going to approve
2. If Partner or Buyout wasn't around the corner.
3. That he wasn't going to make big bucks (at least 40 bucks pps) over the next 18 months or early 2015..
Pfg.. or kev or any long... if you think mnkd sells (buyout) how many years of future sales will be involved in the buyout price. lets say they sell in 2015... after approval and partnership.. how many years of future earings will be invovleved in buyout price leading to pps. thanks
need i remind you they've licensed it a couple times?
need i remind you they got zero money from it despite stating they'd receive upfront money in the PR's
call mgmt and ask them about the status of those partnerships and get ready to cringe at the response....
Some additional facts from the American Diabetic Association (these stats are for the U.S. only)
- Updated March 6, 2013
$245 billion: Total costs of diagnosed diabetes in the United States in 2012
$176 billion for direct medical costs
$69 billion in reduced productivity
After adjusting for population age and sex differences, average medical expenditures among people with diagnosed diabetes were 2.3 times higher than what expenditures would be in the absence of diabetes.
- there are 79 million people with pre-diabetes in the U.S.
- in 2010 there were 1.9 million new cases of diabetics, of individuals 20 years and older, diagnosed in the U.S.
- 26.9% of all people in the U.S. 65 and older have diabetes compared with only 11.3% for those 20 and older
- After adjusting for population age differences, 2007-2009 national survey data for people diagnosed with diabetes, aged 20 years or older include the following prevalence by race/ethnicity:
7.1% of non-Hispanic whites
8.4% of Asian Americans
12.6% of non-Hispanic blacks
11.8% of Hispanics
Among Hispanics rates were:
7.6% for Cubans
13.3% for Mexican Americans
13.8% for Puerto Ricans.
- In 2007, diabetes was listed as the underlying cause on 71,382 death certificates and was listed as a contributing factor on an additional 160,022 death certificates. This means that diabetes contributed to a total of 231,404 deaths.
- In 2005-2008, of adults aged 20 years or older with self-reported diabetes, 67% had blood pressure greater than or equal to 140/90 mmHg or used prescription medications for hypertension
- About 60% to 70% of people with diabetes have mild to severe forms of nervous system damage.
- Diabetes is the leading cause of new cases of blindness among adults aged 20–74 years.
- Diabetes is the leading cause of kidney failure, accounting for 44% of new cases in 2008.
- More than 60% of nontraumatic lower-limb amputations occur in people with diabetes, 65,700 diabetes amputations in 2006 alone.