No analysis, but here are some other Bio Pharma stocks and what occured on approval....
April 13th, 2009: On news of the Phase III clinical trial of it’s prostate cancer drug (Provenge) being successful, Dendreon Corp’s (a leader in cancer drug research) stock price sky-rocketed from $7.30 to $18.85.
This represents an increase of 158% in just one day
May 7th, 2009: Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc. announces the FDA approval of its schizophrenia drug, Fanapta. This caused the company’s stock to multiple nearly 8 times from $1.08 to $8.80.
That is an increase of just over 714%!
There are real possibilities that MNKD will take off like these did on approval, especially since it is first of its kind.
like all launches, this too will struggle.
I predict good votes and approval, but it will peak around $10-12 imo, then gradually decline back to the 5s and then hover around there until sales data. if it launches very favorably, it will go back to 10s, if slow, it will goto 3s imo.
contrary to what people think, this WILL NOT sell 1B the first year or the second. i suspect that it will get there, but take good 5 years imo.
WHEN Afrezza's Adcom goes smoother than #$%$ through a goose and the FDA approves Afrezza, the stock price will be around 20 bucks or about a 8 billion dollar market cap. When a partner signs on and values the shares around 30 bucks the price will be around 30 bucks. 1 year to 18months later the multi billion dollars sales will continue driving up the price. The JDRF's artificial pancreas will be launched and millions of young children will also have access to Afrezza. So my prediction of the stock price when and if Al decides to wait 2yrs and 9 months to sell ALL of Mannkinds assets the stock price will be 100 to 150 bucks a share. Which gives MNKD a market cap of 33 to 50 billion dollars. GIve or take a few billion due to other drugs being used by the cricket or dreamboat and what companies want to license the incredible invention known as the Dreamboat inhaler. Just to add a little more juice to this story, a company is already moving through trials to use the Dreamboat in combination with a type of pain killer that makes it almost impossible to overdose. Any other questions?
i agree to only one point of yours. It will hit Market Capitazliation of 8 billion because Diabetic has massive market. that means in near term immediately after approval, there is good chance stock may hit $20/share but having said that its going to be real tough storms ahead.
There are 3 Scenarios that can happen
1) ADCOMM is Positive but Drug wasnt approved
2) ADCOMM Failure and hence there is no drug approval date
3) ADCOMM Positive and Drug was approved
Scenario 1: ADCOMM Positive but drug wasnt approved.
a) Stock Price will be between $8-$10 on ADCOMM Positive
b) All LONG TIME Investors will get out at this point cashing all profit and brining it below $6 before approval leaving common public like us holding the stock hoping for approval
c) No Approval - Stock goes to 50 cents and then to 2 cents or even zero cents
Scenario 2: ADCOMM Failure and hence no approval date
In this scenario, Stock goes straight to ZERO Cents (most likely it wont happen because FDA may give lifeline for long investors to bail out before approval date
Scenario 3: ADCOMM Positive and Drug Approved.
In this Scenario, Stock will go to $8-$10 on adcomm positive and then it will go to $10-$12 on approval of drug
Chances of Scenario 1 happening = 50%
Chances of Scenario 2 happening = 20%
Chances of Scenario 3 happening = 30%
we have 30% chance
Please elaborate on how you came to those percentages. I would think if there are three possible scenarios then each would have a 33.33(repeating)% chance of happening. At least that's what I learned in each statistics course I took.
"All LONG TIME Investors will get out at this point cashing all profit and bringing it below $6 before approval leaving common public like us holding the stock hoping for approval."
I believe your FALSE on this one, most longs will not cash out at $10. That's a joke right?
They've been holding for years and now they will sell before AFREZZA goes out into the world?
Your forgot to add in – They are a lot that are waiting AFTER PDUFA, then they will add.
Which will increase the price. So most likely closer to $12-13.
Sentiment: Strong Buy