I'm on board with the partner scenario and less on board with a complete buyout. I do believe that MNKD has and is working on a partnership deal. However, I can't ignore my perspective and experience that says - when a company has been looking for a partner as long as MNKD has (at least 2007 and maybe longer) and, even upon FDA approval, they have yet to produce a partnership (I know, it's only been 5 days including announcement day), one has to ask what's the holdup? It's pretty easy to say everyone was waiting for FDA approval but that doesn't wash with me. This is one area where I depart from MNKD's talking points. The reason is when an entity wants something they don't wait.......they pounce. That's how it works in business - if you wait, you're dead. If a partner is out there and willing to put up for the product, they don't sit on the sidelines waiting for someone else to come along and steal it out from under them. There is absolutely NO NEED for MNKD to wait - they could have inked a deal contingent upon FDA approval and expected labeling. They didn't. I would also say that MNKD and potential partners had a good sense of what the label would "probably" be and could have inked a deal just waiting for final word from FDA - so far, crickets. It does not take as much time as is being presented - it's just not that difficult. MNKD has a team of professionals working on the task - what's the holdup? That's my question, my concern here. Patience? No problem....but I'm not buying what we've been told so far on this particular subject. I realize it's a bash, a concern. Hopefully it will work out quickly and my concerns will go up in a blaze of glory. Until then, I have my arms crossed and my eyebrows furrowed and I'm thinking "What is the holdup, Mr. Sobel?" ".... a fence, sir! A barbwire fence!.." "Well that dog just ain't gonna hunt!.." (Movie quote)
Honestly I think your just being impatient in my humble opinion, they WERE waiting for approval and label... What did the company say? 2 weeks at first then it was corrected to 4-6 weeks, I think you need to chill out, just my opinion didn't thumb up or down.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Buyouts simply take longer because of the valuation process, which means going through everything with a fine-tooth comb. Then there's the transfer of ownership documents on patents and production facilities and related third-party contractual obligations that need to be dealt with... and what if some of the patents are in Al's name? Buyer and seller have to sort that all out and get everything into the legal documents to both parties' satisfaction. Nothing can be over looked or taken for granted. It's detailed, complicated, and time-consuming.
Inking drug partnerships are relatively straight forward and simple by comparison.
That's why I believe we're looking at a buyout. It's also Al's forte. Building, promoting and selling. It's how he became a billionaire and the reason for the delay.
I concur with this, well stated. Al has how many patents now, tons. They have to go through everything especially in a buyout scenario and I hope Al makes them pay through the teeth.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
But, even with a ""very good"" deal in Al Mann's view, doesn't he leave a tremendous amount of future value on the table when it comes to the development of other drugs with technosphere..? How much would buyers be willing to pay 'now' for that future value..? I think it is challenging enough just to get a deal he will like with Afrezza..... just imo. I really.....really.... hope he does not sell... really...)))
What do you think of the possibility that the shares will slowly slide until an announcement is made in ~6 weeks and the pop that it brings will bring it right back to where we are now? I am honestly not trying to evoke lots of attacks, but thoughtful answers. I have been holding this stock for a very long time and plan on continuing to. But more than once, I have been disappointed in the way the stock handled but also with the way the company handles the investors. I also have concerns about their balance sheet and if another dilution is in our future.
Bingo. So they slide back down to $8. Then pops huge, 200% profit in a day!! Woo hoo!! Hold on, thats $16 pps. Its $5 more than the 52 week high and just under the IPO from 10 years ago. Lets go big and say 300% profit from $8. $24. That is still a paltry payoff for holding through a binary event or for years.
Remember, the markets have been on a tear, all time highs daily. To take this risk and have dead money for months right now.. well. Thats a serious issue. We wont see overall markets like this for some time after the cool down. Money dead is money lost.
shares may drift down and/or sideways over the next period of time until announcement of partner and/or buyout occurs HOWEVER there is no way the Al would be selling MNKD for $11 a share
I think the really big bids for buyout just started to come in after approval.
CEO's want the control of their new toy. I don't want to put my name and money on something huge like this and leave control with somebody else. Aside from Buffett, who prefers to be hands off, CEO's are similar in their thinking. Type A personalities, a group in which most CEO's belong, have trouble relinquishing control to others.
IF bids came in after approval, expecially buyout offers, that might explain the quiet. They have a few days to report substantial offers to shareholders so they may be taking all of that time to negotiate with anybody else who may want to top that offer. All this has to be done under a cone of silence you understand.
JMO FWIW -
Buyout may not be desired by Al, but other CEO's may just want it that bad.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
We're in for a rough couple of weeks as this partnership takes form. Shorts and the hedgies know that they have time and impatient investors on their hands. I'm looking for no dilution out to about six weeks. If we get to that point, I think a solid partnership is near before the end of August. Greenhill and Al will not let this drag out to the point that it hinders market rollout.
On the other hand, if the company wasn't constantly saying "partner" and "partnership," I would fully be expecting a buyout. They have everything wrapped up in a neat, organized package for a suitor. I still like Sanofi, because their pipeline is so weak, and it would be a solid fit.
When all is said and done, I'm really only interested in the division of the spoils. Short-term taxes make buyout cash vastly less valuable compared with a correctly-priced, sheltered, stock swap. Show me the money? No thanks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
i dont acknowledge partner scenario til its published as a done deal. lot of moving parts and lots of pharma interest in this drug and device............ im happy to add shares layer by layer if it declines and look forward to the published deal made between mannkind and whomever. expecting a late late entrant expressing interest with deep pockets. its a competition and one guy dont want the other guy to have an edge. afrezza is a big edge. i say winner will overpay to prevent afrezza from going into competitors hands. just how i see it.
clearly mnkd CFO and al mann have talked about partnership and how mnkd will be manufacturer - i just dont buy it hook, line, & sinker at this juncture.
im also not falling for the post fda approval internet crappola articles explaining why mnkd pps declined today. i believe hedgies issue talking points to these dolts/writers. i think todays action was highly orchestrated and MM are complicit. i assume the worst.......in too many instances when it comes to companies like one drug mannkind. we shall see. looks like im gonna buy some more shares now. gl.
Any legitimate partner will spend time reviewing the FDA warning label and required additional testing which could easily take many weeks. However, it seems to mew that all of that is not material to MNKD's success going forward. I think bigger institutions will be the new buyers now and all of you such as matese16 are helping them get in at an attractive price when all the news is out and the risk basis is very negligible.