Here is a completely different perspective of Mannkind's share price. If you look back at the charts for the past two years, you will notice that last year the stock was valued at around $6 per share. The year before it was only valued at about $2 per share. Now that we have FDA approval, it looks like the stock is settling here at around $8 per share. But wait a minute.
The stock was valued at $6 per share for a long time. This was before FDA approval, any partnership deal, or any revenues with a company that burns through quite a bit of cash quarter after quarter. So, what will the market value MannKind after partnership? What will market value Technosphere and potential revenues from licensing fees and more? What will market value MannKind once revenues start taking form?
Considering that MannKind held $6 area for such a long time without FDA approval or any of the other significant milestones yet to come, one has to wonder if $8 is a fair valuation. Going back to $6 would not even make sense. I would have to argue that $8 is not gong to be where this thing settles as the market waits for sales results. Likely, a $4b market cap ($10+ per share) or higher may be a more realistic area once the partnership deal is finalized and the market can anticipate revenues.
One last thing. I believe that doctor's will be slow to prescribe Afrezza. However, I believe that once they receive positive feedback from first few patients, sales will increase rapidly. I also believe many underestimate the demand from the actual diabetic industry. Word will get out and patients will demand to be prescribed Afrezza.
You underestimate the power of an excellent product coupled with the power of "word of mouth". It will take 1 maybe 2 quarters for sales to explode. And when insurance carriers realize the benefit of increased compliance? Game over.
Disagree. Stock is trading about 40% higher today than its average for a year (just before the rally into FDA approval.) Not too bad.
What I am saying is that today's share price is not factoring in partnership deal or any other positive catalysts. Imagine an announcement by somebody like ADA recommending Afrezza to the diabetic population and to please ask your doctor about its benefits.
I do not know where PPS will settle, but am sure it will not be back down at $6 per share. $8 seems a little low. I do feel that before revenues take form, the PPS will find a trading range and I suspect that it will be somewhere in that $10+ area before heading higher at some point.