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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • aco_brasil0192 aco_brasil0192 Apr 26, 2011 6:56 PM Flag

    New positions

    Sold IRE. Holding cash for now - waiting for lower entry.

    Bought UUP and SDS - actually a large enough position to make it scary.

    Thought about selling GOOG...

    Long and strong ELP.

    Bleeding NBG.

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    • It can't be more than a week away from today. I just noticed that GFA went ex-div today also, which explains the dive.

      I might have to take a bite...

    • Congrats on the silver short....it was certainly due for a correction. Have been looking for that earnings info myself....Agree that I would be looking at GFA here.

    • Sold ZSL in PM. GFA starting to look attractive again at these levels. When is their next ER scheduled?

    • is 1.54 good entry for NBG?

    • I am bleeding NBG and YLWPF here. I also bleed slightly on the BSBR. In the sense that imminent default crisis somewhere in Europe is going to flare up, that DJIA and Euro/USD as well as European non-financial indices mostly IGNORE and DEFY all of those imminent risks, I think we are going to take a massive supplemental bleeding at some point when it explodes.

      This being said, in the 3 stocks I am bleeding on (I sold all of what was not bleeding yet recently) I think BSBR is the only one with good prospects since it is outright cheap at market cap below book value the same way as NBG, but with 1.5 times higher tier 1 and without toxic bond exposure worth 2 times equity like NBG. YLWPF is going to bleed down since this is a now growth company with some debt, but at least it yields sustainably high and operates in Canada so on the long term it is not a fail, but it is not a buy either.

      For the rest, even richard band begins to be careful about market ignoring downside fundamentals factors. On the other way, after brutal bleeding, a good load of bargains could be available. BMA and BAP are slowly going back to bargain status and believe me, those are as good as BSBR once their valuations are in line (market cap < shareholders' funds, which requires 50% + drop from today's price).

      I have no GFA now, anything benefitting GFA will benefit BSBR and BSBR is cheaper and less cyclical (Burger king meals can go on credit card during cyclical downturn while Home sales just go bust and so on)

      • 1 Reply to fliujniligui
      • Given the current climate in Brazil, I don't understand why you would get bogged down in financials of all sectors to be dabbling in. Brazil just buying time before raising rates IN EARNEST. A better play: commodities bubble going to get pricked very soon as inflation is starting to take its toll - particularly if Bernanke leaves the punch bowl out for the drunken prom goers a bit longer. Central banks know they have to get serious about tightening. I see far more short opps in Brazil than anything else.

        VALE is beggging to be crushed once China tightens a bit more. Having said all that....a good bounce play is in order off today's beat down should it hold the lows. I do agree with getting long the buck as some manufactured event MUST be generated to prevent it from slipping below critical support and being sold off altogether by creditor nations. China has hinted at as much. Wouldn't surprise me if Brazil quietly started heading for the exits with their several hundred billion in Ts.

    • i sold my FAX shares and bought MIN yesterday. I bought more GFA because a part of me loves pain. SD is crushing me today, but i'm not too concerned overall. i'd have to see the USD really make a move before starting to sell shares or covered calls.

 
GFA
1.02-0.01(-0.97%)May 31 4:02 PMEDT