Well guys I almost pushed the sell button last Friday at $2.82 and later I might regret not doing it.
This few days rise is a little suspect to me. Instead of a reversal it looks like a bear flag. On the other hand volume was decent on Thursday (5.4mill shares) and Friday (4.3mill shares) and pretty light today so far (1.4mill shares and may stay below 3mill shares today).
I am waiting for a high 2.80's or 2.90's and will probably sell as I do not want to hold anything in this mess. I do not see anything else to trigger the markets upward other than QE3. I am certain of a coming global recession (I only follow ECRI and Laksman Achutan) and the only chance to get out of this might be a summer rally. Second half of this year will be a disappointment but the FED may come up with Q3 so that would be good for stocks but bad for the dollar and actually help the real and GFA.
I honestly cannot believe JPM waited this long to downgrade this. What possible catalyst exists to maintain neutral rating? And you're right about the Real. It's back under $2, but in my mind, that must be attributable to direct intervention given dollar's parabolic move. Hard to take any rally seriously when EUR/USD also not confirming.