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432 million shares of Gafisa pre-dilution. Assuming a PPS of R$2.60, market cap is R$1.123 billion.Independently assessed value for 20% Alphaville stake: R$359 million Current agreement: 70 million shares will be issued at R$5.11 (14% dilution)Alphaville holders want: 90 million shares at R$3.70 (17% dilution)Given current assessed valuation, GFA’s 80% stake of Alphaville is worth R$1.4 billion.Zell reportedly offered R$700 million for Gafisa and Tenda in March.Working from these estimates alone, the company is worth R$2.1 billion. R$4.86/share x 432 million shares = R$2.1 billion.Its hard to imagine that Gafisa management will accept anything less than that. A 50/50 compromise with Alphaville holders would be R$4.40/share.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention the best part of all...Current R$1.12 billion market cap is R$400 million LESS than the assessed value of the Alphaville stake that GFA currently holds. This is completely writing off the Gafisa and Tenda holdings.Unless you think the company will be sunk by its debt load, this is a screaming buy. (Don't forget that half of the debt is comprised of project financing).
Bump. So in the end, Gafisa management paid approximately R$10m above the assessed value for the 20% stake.
Besides the technical factors, the Alphaville demand price from the buyout seems to be laying the floor right here.