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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

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  • the_entitled the_entitled Nov 16, 2012 4:46 PM Flag

    Quoting CFO Andre Bergstein

    He answered Santander's analyst question "...Land has dropped and I imagine that sometime it looks up pulling up again. And so when are you going to rebuild the land bank?..."

    I'd be nervous if Mgmt thinks "land pulling up again" in the middle of the second inning. Let second tier builders and flippers believe that.

    My take from the cc and er is that 1) they are open to M&A as long as financials get healthy per your catch above, and 2)They understand that a fortress balance sheet with EPS of BLR$0.5 hinting that dividend may come back to the table in a year or two with far less competition is better than a weak balance sheet with a BRL$2 with no dividend and competition nearby.
    Their 5 year plan must confirm they are NOT worried about land bank repletion i.e. they're aligned with Barclays "The recovery normally has two stages: cash inflection, which typically takes place two or three quarters after a volume cut...we estimate that companies will collect, on average 65% of their EV until 2013, with little demand for land bank repletion)".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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