Price to Book Value on Cyrela, Brazil's largest home builder is currently 1.50x vs Gafisa's 0.80x. I think the Alphaville spinoff is going to happen soon, unless GFA can trade up to 1.5x Book Value. Which would be just north of $9/share. The longer is stays under 8-9 bucks, the more likely the Alphaville spinoff happens. I think Mgmt is waiting to see if the stock will move in that direction before deciding. Either way, this stock is likely to double in price this year.
Cyrela trades at 11.5x FTM TEV/EBITDA and GFSA3 trades at 13x. Now I think the GFSA3 estimates are low but at best they are comparably valued. Cyrela didn't have the problems with low income that GFSA3 did. I still think there's much more upside with GFSA3 for the reasons you mention, and also because it is the most liquid brazilian homebuilder.