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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • toss30041 toss30041 Jan 28, 2013 10:46 AM Flag

    Cyrela comparison

    Price to Book Value on Cyrela, Brazil's largest home builder is currently 1.50x vs Gafisa's 0.80x. I think the Alphaville spinoff is going to happen soon, unless GFA can trade up to 1.5x Book Value. Which would be just north of $9/share. The longer is stays under 8-9 bucks, the more likely the Alphaville spinoff happens. I think Mgmt is waiting to see if the stock will move in that direction before deciding. Either way, this stock is likely to double in price this year.

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    • Cyrela trades at 11.5x FTM TEV/EBITDA and GFSA3 trades at 13x. Now I think the GFSA3 estimates are low but at best they are comparably valued. Cyrela didn't have the problems with low income that GFSA3 did. I still think there's much more upside with GFSA3 for the reasons you mention, and also because it is the most liquid brazilian homebuilder.

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