BR FX is definitely testing 6 month bottom here. my guess is the gov't wants to see a 2.00 to 2.05 range versus 2.05+ as it's been for the last few months. Interesting comments out of Banco de Mexico re: inflation and market speculation that they'll have to cut rates sooner than later. We might see a little realization that MX valuations are now expensive and Brazil, on a relative basis, is a better opportunity.
I'm not sure if the BC knows what the h e ll it wants with regards to currency valuations. Their actions have been all over the place.
They're definitely skating on thin ice with regards to the export vs. inflation pendulum act.
I think we see a two day correction here. I took a small short position on Friday against the Russell (short term bet). We have two days of US bond sales which will help offset the POMO juicer. If there is any surprise on the RBA decision tonight, that could add a bit more fuel to the fire also.
Latin America specific news takes a back seat to Europe, Australia, and other carry trade matters in the short run.