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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • siemprefue siemprefue Mar 12, 2013 8:16 AM Flag

    2012 Estimates

    Some quick observations:
    1) 2012 Revenue: consensus mean was R$3.997b (actual was R$3.953b) - a slight miss
    2) 2012 EBITDA: consensus mean was R$483mm (actual was R$471mm) - again, a slight miss
    3) 2012 EBIT: consensus mean was R$328mm (actual was R$383mm) - a very nice beat
    4) Q42012: everything was a miss
    5) Cash from Ops 2012: consensus mean was R$707mm (actual was R$1.04b) - a very nice beat
    6) EPS: big miss for quarter and consequently for the year (this is almost always the hipshot headline but obviously misses the real story of what's going on with the Company)
    7) 2012 ROIC: If I am calculating NOPAT correctly, ROIC reversed from -26% for 2011 to 22% for 2012 - a stellar rebound.

    I am guessing we see a sell-off and then buyers will step in. There's probably a floor in the R$4 range but with a 2.6x beta, anything is possible I guess.....

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    • The thing is - it took me til page 27 to figure out they'd actually had a loss for the year. NOTHING about a loss per share in any of the comments. 27 pages and they couldn't tell the reader they had a loss for the year - as in, you're not supposed to talk about that? Disengenous wishful thinking - maybe even bordering on the dishonest. Turns out - that is the ONLY thing the market concentrated on, so why hide it? Nothing has changed in the drama. Until they sell off that legacy inventory and raise sufficient cash to make those debt payments in December, 2013 and 2014, the market is not going to be a believer.

      • 2 Replies to abcs.learning
      • good volume today. OBV + 1.485mm on 4.985mm volume - not great but not bad either. I expected it to break R$4 out of the gate.

      • i guess but they list the annual loss on the first page bullet points. I kind of prefer the emphasis on FCF and margins. What I find bothersome is the constant adjusting for 'ex-Tenda' - while some of it is useful - it gets laborious. Bottom line: i don't see participants focused on earnings but EPV and top line growth. The overhang with the stock is more market related to Brazil - Brazilians do not trust equities in general. I hate conf calls with interpreters. and they should use another platform than one that sounds like its piped in from Mumbai.

    • right as rain, bid/ask 4.10/4.15 on the local shares

    • All because of known Tenda issues. Obviously Company is more conservative than analysts.

 
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