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Gafisa S.A. Message Board

  • siemprefue siemprefue Mar 22, 2013 10:01 AM Flag

    FUNCEF

    increases passive stake to 10.35% of outstanding shares. 6K filed this AM.

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    • I obviously needed more caffeine this AM. Misread total shares of 23.835mm to be the total amount of the 3/20 buy. My bad - total buy 3/20 was 3.38mm for a current total position of 23.835mm or 5.5%.

    • They reduced their Gafisa holdings to 4.85% on Jan 10th.

    • Thanks for mentioning this. I believe this is very positive news. FUNCEF is one of largest pension funds in Brazil and actually manages the pensions for the employees of Caixa. If anybody understands the value of Gafisa here, it is FUNCEF.

      • 3 Replies to fiberbull
      • Today was the last day before all bids re: Alphaville had to be presented. Stock has been an up down yo yo, mostly down. I know it is sitting at support here, but every scan I have done of the company's value - Caiman Valores too - we come up with a figure of $10/share USD.

        Further, if only HALF of their existing inventory is sold, or if every piece of inventory they have is sold at blue-light specials - 50% off of asking - plus if only 50% of their creditors ever pay them what they owe them and default on the rest - then the company is still worth $7/share USD.

        It's trading at $3.77 today. It was trading at the same price a year ago (May, 2012) and yet the company has R$1.02 BL more in cash on the books and about the same debt today as it did a year ago.

        Go figure.

        Lastly, technically, GFA traditionally has a super high beta, and it hasn't been acting its old self lately, kinda like it has the flu. That could end at any moment. A 35% rally in April/May would take us right back up to the top of the recent range. This stock takes gargantuan swings, but the longest swing (this one was downward) lasted 3 months. The rest were two months duration or less.

        All this is a long way of saying, "We're due". I think 2012 was when most of the sellers were driven out of the stock. We have been down for 2 months now. If the pattern continues, we should reverse, with one or two months of UP.

        Nov/Dec. 2012 -44%
        Jan/Feb, 2012 +50%
        March/April/May, 2012 -68%
        April, 2012 -28%
        May, 2012 -45%
        June, 2012 +40%
        July, 2012 -27%
        August, 2012 +71%
        September, 2012 +21%
        Nov/Dec, 2012 +32%
        Dec/Jan, 2013 +16%
        Feb/March, 2013 -28%

      • I cannot fathom how a FUNCEF investment can be viewed negatively. Plus the article mentioned about Brazilians being bearish on the market as a leading indicator, while erroneous in many respects, actually supports FUNCEF buying as bullish. If locals have any idea as to the direction of the Brazilian market, surely FUNCEF does and if they are buying, it's certainly bullish. Anyway, the Brazilian stock market has for all intents and purposes gone nowhere for about 6 years now, and GFA is at levels not seen since the financial crisis. Overall, I consider sentiment very negative now, and so it's probably time to buy in Brazil, with the caveat that I have no idea where the bottom or top is any stock.

      • I agree. Interestingly a Brazilian colleague views it as negative. One of the market theses re: Brazil equity performance, is Brazilians are unjustifiably negative on their equity markets and economy - not that there aren't problems - but comparatively, Brazil is in pretty good shape.

    • nice!! Thanks

 
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1.63-0.03(-1.81%)Jan 23 4:04 PMEST

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