looks like they throttled way back to about 10% of 2013 guidance across the board. haven't done full analysis but they seem to be maintaining pricing. inventory down 3.3% with average sales velocity of 5.9%. they do project -R$30mm CF for the quarter.
This doesn't look too good. The high number of cancellations and 50% drop in pre-sales indicates a severe cooling in demand.
I'm not sure what this statement means. Why would a higher volume of deliveries lead to more sales cancellations??
"Given the high volume of deliveries in the second half of 2012, Gafisa brand registered a higher volume of
sales cancellations in this quarter. Throughout the year, we will work to resell these units."
"First-quarter 2013 consolidated pre-sales totaled R$205 million, a 50% decline compared to 1Q12. Sales from launches represented 35% of the total, while sales from inventory comprised the remaining 65%."
"Cash generation was slightly negative, mainly impacted by lower launch volume due to seasonality and expenditures linked to landbank acquisition.”
The earnings are in keeping with their strategy to scale back Gafisa and Alphaville and concentrate on growing Tenda. I think it's a good long-term strategy (more conservative), though the short-term is ugly. Wish they would just get rid of Alphaville already. I can't understand why they can't negotiate a deal with Alphapar and get this thing done already. Both parties are shooting themselves in the foot.
I am estimating 1Q13 revenue of R$405mm assuming 2012 unit average realized price/unit. Revenue would be ~17% of the low-end 2013 guidance so not sure it's that negative given general slowdown in the markets. Negative cash flow can be easily explained by landbank and seasonality. Low-end 2013 guidance is 60% of realized 2012 revenue so lower expectations must be priced already.