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Breitburn Energy Partners LP Message Board

  • oilnboil427 oilnboil427 Dec 30, 2013 10:10 PM Flag

    BBEP over the long term....

    I bought and sold BBEP and made a few dollars back over the summer, now I'm back for the long term to collect that div ....Im predicting BBEP will go around 30 a share over the next 2 years... any thoughts?

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    • oilnboil, It is possible for BBEP to hit 30 the next 2 years.
      For long term, this is an excellent holding.
      Forbes rated this one as Top 3.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to tacojoe83
      • vattars/tacojoe/oroplata (he uses 3 IDs to give himself support), have you come here to ruin another message board with your off topic ravings just like you flooded the ndro board with your delusions of 'foreign terrorists' manipulating the price of your investments?
        As for your comment, you have never shown any inclination or ability to analyze anything, so where is the basis for your $30 in 2 years claim? Anyone can make up any number and without any reasoning it is as worthless as 'to da moon'.
        Bottom line is that you got this because Forbes suggested it, same as you said was the reason you bought ndro. Beyond the fact that a Forbes screen may have kicked out this name, I doubt you know anything about it at all.

    • I played it twice.. did okay. but that div is worth just sitting on it for a yr or two. its the only energy play I found with solid div. Bbep is keeping the div high by financing debt.. so really its only a good stock for the div in the first place. kind of obvious from chart patterns.

    • Just my thought. I own BBEP and LNCO on a short-term bet, so I'm not short.

      Production MLPs generally don't make great investments. First, the facts - BBEP closed 2010 at $ 20.14; it closed 2011 at $ 19.07; it closed 2012 at $ 18.47, and it closed 2013 at $ 20.34. During those years, units outstanding increased from 59 million to 99 million. Total DCF has increased a lot, but not enough to materially increase the per-unit distribution. The distributions paid during 2013 were only 5% higher than in 2012 and 13% higher than in 2011. And BBEP is the best performer on that metric of all the seasoned production MLPs I follow. And aside from PSE, which soared in 2013 due to its being absorbed by its GP, BBEP (and VNR) has been the best performer in terms of market price among the seasoned production MLPs. Just look at EVEP and LINE to see how bad things could have been.

      The problem (I think) is that while oil/gas exploration produces lots of cash flow, it also requires huge upfront cash investments in new properties and developments. So the MLPs, including BBEP are continually issuing new units, which offsets most of the DCF from new wells.

      So I'm not looking for much beyond the distribution. I'll sell when BBEP announces its next acquisition and buy it back after the next secondary, but I can't see it going to $ 30 unless energy prices skyrocket, which I don't see happening.


      But I've been wrong once or twice (insert smiley icon here) so don't put much weight in my ramblings.

      • 2 Replies to jrad52
      • jrad
        these aren't really stocks... they are a kind of subordinate obligation with discretionary dcf based coupon... most bond guys (like me) like high coupon bonds with rising distributions.
        having said that... you've got your trading idea right: barring hedgeyes and such, these are range bound and you can profitably trade the range several times a year for more than the coupon is worth

      • Just one question--what was the company like in 2007 when the stock price was $35? To me the current valuations are better now than then--so why can't the share price appreciate and maintain the dividend ( the divie then was similar to now) ? I think this company is in better shape now. Interested in opinions-- I am long in QRE, MEMP, LINE, BBEP,VNR as upstream plays. Cheers.

        Sentiment: Buy

    • that means that the dividend will drop to around 6.4% yield from the current dividend payout of 9.6%. No way will this happen.

      • 1 Reply to mailbagman2000
      • Agree, that's much too low, LINE during the "calm" periods after the financial crisis, and before the controversy, yielded in the 7's. BBEP is much smaller and has a checkered past, you would think it would top out in the low 8's at best. Assume the distribution goes up to, say, $2.30 and that gives you an absolute maximum of $28, but probably $25 is more realistic. I don't think anyone here would complain too much about that.

        Those 2007 prints are astonishing, given that the distribution was lower, and govt. bond money market yields were around 5%! That's where I had all my money parked in 2007, 100% in a Vanguard fund. LINE's chart is similar until the crash, but afterwards it held up better, maintaining the distribution, and increasing it 30-35% from then to now. BBEP's distribution is only up 10%. In any case, the market price is going to be based on the future, not the past.

    • Just recognize that the global price of oil is what drives BBEP unit price...a deal with Iran will drop BBEP a lot...Iran has perhaps the world's second biggest oil reserves. China now the world's biggest oil importer. Chinese recession will drive BBEP down...Chinese boom means BBEP skyrockets. USA law change permitting USA crude oil exports. BBEP goes up. Change in Venzuela govt and BBEP goes down...lots of possibilities...Me? I don't worry about it...I have chunks of change in BBEP,MEMP,VNR,and NRP and collect distributions ! .Happy New YearvAll!!!

    • Doubt it.
      The dividned is too big.
      I think it will stay in a trading range of 18.50 - 21.00
      They make a lot of purchases, and need to see stock to pay for it.
      I am long in BBEP, and have been for several years.

    • I think thy will row their dividend by 20% both this year and next so $30 is doable. Stoxline estimates $28 within one year.

      Sentiment: Buy

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