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China Yuchai International Limited Message Board

  • jaarc.rm jaarc.rm Mar 30, 2010 6:59 AM Flag

    Yuchai Group January and February

    I found this pull from a Google translated article on the Yuchai Group website.

    (For newly interested investors: Yuchai Machinery is the largest individual part of Yuchai Group...and China Yuchai International (CYD) owns 76.4% of Yuchai Machinery.)

    "In 2009, Yuchai engines above 67 million units sold, sales revenue 27.197 billion yuan, up 29.58%; in 2010 from January to February, total sales of Yuchai engines 154.6 thousand units, an increase of 82.17%, the cumulative sales revenue of 6.117 billion yuan, an increase of 118.13% and continue to maintain a good momentum of development."

    Notes:

    1.) The figures above are for the entire Group...which includes CYD's part of Yuchai Machinery.

    2.) CYD previously reported on February 25th that they had already sold 83,040 engines in January...and that's a record.

    3.) The usual rule of thumb is that approximately 70% of the Group reported engine volume is China Yuchai International's...although they did much better than that in January (83,040 out of 99,458).

    4.) Volume in February was down from January, at least in part because the entire country took an entire week off for the Spring Festival.

    5.) March has historically been the best month of the year in terms of volume. Concentrate on CV (Commercial Vehicles...Trucks and Buses) because that's where Yuchai sells their engines...very few are in the passenger automobile market at this point.

    6.) Another rule of thumb is that CYD's revenues will be approximately 50% of Yuchai Group's number. That means that CYD should have approximately 3 billion yuan in revenue for January and February...which at the current rate of 6.8256 yuan to the dollar...works out to be about $439 million in revenue...so far.

    To put that in perspective, revenue for the entire 4th quarter of 2009 was reported to be $471.2 million.

    The 3rd quarter of 2009 had the highest reported total revenue in the amount of $510.8 million. (The second quarter was reported at $504.7 million). These numbers were pulled from the 6K's filed with the SEC if anyone cares to check their veracity.)

    Looks like we are headed for a record quarter.

    :)

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    • HLA bought another 0.8% of CYD @ $14.60?

    • A few more thoughts about what I brought up yesterday.

      I found this pull from a Google translated article on the Yuchai Group website.

      (For newly interested investors: Yuchai Machinery is the largest individual part of Yuchai Group...and China Yuchai International (CYD) owns 76.4% of Yuchai Machinery.)

      "In 2009, Yuchai engines above 67 million units sold, sales revenue 27.197 billion yuan, up 29.58%; in 2010 from January to February, total sales of Yuchai engines 154.6 thousand units, an increase of 82.17%, the cumulative sales revenue of 6.117 billion yuan, an increase of 118.13% and continue to maintain a good momentum of development."

      Notes on "50% rule of thumb":

      1.) Last year the relationship of CYD's Revenues to Yuchai Group revenues would be 48.33% (Calculated as follows...13,144,245,000 RMB (pulled from 6K) divided by 27,197,000,000 RMB as reported above).

      In 2008, CYD reported revenues of 10,404,788,000 RMB (also from 6K)...and I am pretty sure that the Group reported 20,988,000,000 RMB (not sure of source at the moment...Google Yuchai sales 2008 and check)...which would be 49.57%.

      The slight decline in the percentage can be attributed to the other divisions of Yuchai Group growing even faster than the engine division. But, CYD does not own them.

      It may very well be appropriate to lower this rule of thumb to 48%...still pretty close, though.

      More to come...

      • 1 Reply to jaarc.rm
      • Yuchai Group reported revenues in 2009 of 27.197 billion yuan (and has stated that their goal is to exceed 30 billion in 2010)...

        Note:

        1.) That means an "average month" for the Group in 2009 was 2.266 billion yuan.

        2.) March was 13.48% of unit volume in 2009 (90,813 divided by 673,727), and was 13.11% of unit volume in 2008 (72,133 divided by 550,148).

        3.) Based on the last 2 years data, March is an above average month...and average month would be one-twelfth...or 8.33%.

        4.) Based on the above I would certainly expect Group revenues from March to be well above an average month month from 2009.

        The group has already booked 6.117 billion yuan in the first 2 months...which averages out to over 3 billion yuan a month.

        5.) The Group Revenue in the first quarter should be at least 8.383 billion yuan (merely by adding an average month from 2009 to what has been reported for January and February).

        It will very likely be higher than that.

        By the way...that CIMB analyst did put out a report talking about a potential upside earnings surprise for Yuchai not to long ago...and that guy seems to get the best information...hmmmm.

        48% of 8.383 billion yuan would be 4.024 billion yuan...or roughly $590 million for CYD.

        Remember...that number is probably low...for a couple of reasons.

    • 你的妈妈,她的冲击!
      Google translation: "Yo' Ma Ma, her impact (giving you an airhead).

      Can't resist, Jarrc, to quote your old post whenever I saw rngmsl's fluent Mandarin.

      Sold 2500 sh to repay margin loans at $7700 profit. Still own a ton of shares. Just wanna join others in paying my tributes to say thanks. I couldn't have done it without you.

    • Sorry, but yahoo is giving me a hard time with posting my reply.

      Try using Google Translate...you can Google it.

      I have become somewhat expert at translating the translations...which sometimes are complete and utter gibberish.

      The "rules of thumb" are based on historical comparisons of the reported numbers of Yuchai Group with those of CYD.

    • 你應該更具體,然後。我只是想幫助你。下一個
      時間不要問這樣愚蠢的問題。

    • no, I am blarnokie

    • 1. Where do you get these rules of thumb from?

      2. What website did you pull this down from and when?

      3. What is this reference to 67 million engines? Are they off in the translation?

      4. What does the non-CYD part of Yuchai do?

 
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