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China Yuchai International Limited Message Board

  • dhhtuis23 dhhtuis23 Jul 29, 2010 2:10 PM Flag

    Question for Jaarc about expected Q2 numbers

    For Q2, 2010 - I am trying to estimate CYD's expected heavy, medium and light duty shipments. Have you made any estimates.
    Also, what is your estimate for revenue for each category and operating margins. Give me your basis.
    I can estimate EPS from that. I want to see if you get that specific in your estimates. If you don't do this, do you know any analyst who does?

    Thanks so much for your asistance.

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    • I really don't need to get that deep to get a good ballpark estimate.

      If you look at the CEO's presentation from July 1, 2010 on page 4 you will see that the breakdown by Light/Medium/Heavy/Industrial engines in the 1st quarter were: 40.3%/38.7%/8.1%/12.8%

      That was a substantial shift away from previous years when light-duty engines were closing in on 50%...and medium-duty engines hovered just below and at 30%. Heavy duty engines went from 7.4% in both previous years to 8.1% in the 1st quarter.

      I doubt that light-duty engines will be higher than what they were in the 1st quarter...and I suspect that they could be lower due to seasonal buying patterns for certain types of vehicles. I would ballpark light-duty engines at 40% just to be conservative, though.

      Margins:
      According to Boo Guan Saw in one of the conference calls, light-duty was mid-teens, medium-duty was low twenties, and heavy-duty was high twenties.

      Given the product mix shift and hoping for some cost savings as a result of the lean six-sigma project implementations we may (barring some other extraneous items) see overall gross margins expand from the 20.3% reported in the 1st quarter.

      The problem I see with getting as detailed as you want is coming up with reasonable estimates for the "Industrial & Other" engines revenues per item and margins.

      The DBS Vickers and CIMB analysts may get that detailed in their analysis, but they have not published any of that information to the best of my knowledge.

      Good luck with your research. We will both have a new set of data points to input in less than two weeks.

 
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