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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Message Board

  • new2bd new2bd Jun 7, 2000 3:03 PM Flag

    Looking for insight

    Have never invested in Oil & Gas. Why is it that a company such as BR, with 119 P/E, should be more attractive than, say, HSE at 28, or even POG at 16?

    Thanks for your thoughts.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • check the message history East Texas-Lufkin

    • Maybe the guy running the stock was stuck in trafic this morning.

      Was about to call my broker and tell him to take $60 a share. (LOL)

    • I have a bid and ask of

      20 11/16 x 62 7/16

      Whats the story

    • well, i definitely must have confused the tone of
      your message.

      "i am worried that gas prices
      could go down"

      I am too. If it does, the
      companies which hedge are the ones who wont get completely
      burned. Like I said in my previous post, you can make a
      case for BR being a longterm value here with $2.75 -
      $3 gas.

      NG fundamentals are pretty solid
      right now. There simply arent enough physical rigs
      and/or people to immediately make up for the supply
      shortfall. A hot summer will make it difficult to have any
      sort of build. Watch the injection numbers in July and
      August --- those should be an indicator as to where
      we'll stand come November.

      "i have been burned
      lately and am very advers to risk"

      On natural gas
      or on tech stocks?

      I dont follow UCL. I
      researched it and decided not to invest but cant remember
      exactly why. My e&p holdings are:
      Safe -- SFS,
      BR
      Medium -- DNR
      Super high risk -- PANA, AXAS

      If
      the high prices hold through winter, the latter two
      should see 4x gains or more.

      "when more people
      like me start to enter the gas shares will start to go
      like the tech shares."

      The big up move will
      come when a full sector rotation occurs, if it does.
      This will mean people switching 401K funds into e&p
      mutual funds. Which will take awhile because I doubt all
      401K plans even offer e&p funds. (Mine doesnt, but has
      promised to remedy that.) In this scenario, it is the
      large caps that will really win because the mutual fund
      money wont go into illiquid stocks.

    • Multex Staff gives The Paine Webber Views on Natural Gas
      http://pub10.ezboard.com/fstockpicksnetstocks.showMessage?topicID=60.topic
      BR reiterated Attractive

    • from here in a report today.

      They like BR,
      EOG, APC, UCL and many others.

      I think UCL is
      attractive BTW. Alex Brown says they may have some good
      exploration news in the second half. AB also says BR is
      cheap.

    • sorry if you confused the tone of my message. i
      am not slammng br. this is the share that most
      analyst are recommending because of its size (good for
      portfolio managers) and current price. i am not "hyping"
      BSNX i am just looking for advice. i liked the graph
      and they look like even with the reductions in output
      they will still make at least $28m this year with a
      market cap of $300m. that is not a bad p/e but it seems
      that they have a history of not meeting their targets
      which is a risk. i am worried that gas prices could go
      down, which is the risk. but it seems that everyone
      seems to think that a definite gas shortage will begin
      on nov 1. i have been burned lately and am very
      advers to risk so i almost try to talk myself out of
      things even if the odds are they will be aq goood
      investment. the bloomberg.com/energy site quoted futures
      dealors as saying that the price will keep going up, it
      is almost a certainty. the only problem is when in
      the past when i have heard experts say these things
      the opposite usually happens.

      i will probaly
      buy br as it has liquidity and i can set a stopp loss
      that will be executed. some of these other oil and gas
      shares that i have heard recommened trade 10000 shares a
      day. not the sort of secnario i enjoy if trying to
      maintain peace of mind. what do you think of UCL. they
      seem to have fairly regular earnings that are growing.


      most of the gas shares seem to be moving sideways. but
      there is alsono volume in themarket at all. when more
      people like me start to enter the gas shares will start
      to go like the tech shares. i hope.
      (up)

      thanks

    • "as i am now 3 days into my education of gas
      companies i am beggingin to understant that ths business is
      a complete gamble"

      3 days of education? Wow,
      you must be an expert by now.

      btw, its AGA,
      not APA. Prices "collapsed" to $4 MCF which is
      roughly $.75 higher than the basis most analysts are
      using when determining their targets.

      Injection
      last week was 78BCF. This was lower than last year, as
      well as the three year and five year
      averages.

      IMO, BR is fairly valued using $2.75 NG as the basis.
      Anything higher will be gravy. It would require an
      absolute collapse in NG prices for BR to fall
      significantly. I'm perfectly willing to accept that risk, as it
      would require some really odd weather to allow this to
      occur.

      Its also quite funny that you are slamming BR while
      hyping BSNX. BSNX has missed production targets
      consistently. They just announced their latest qtr would be
      significantly under production estimates. Your logic that BR is
      a bad investment because NG prices would fall
      applies much more to BSNX which would see this fall
      accompanied by lower production.

      I suggest you take a
      closer look during day 4 of your class.

    • i went to the bloomberg.com/energy site and it
      seem the futures prices collapsed on thursday because
      the apa report said that inventories were way higher
      than analyst predicted. funny but maxwells whole
      thesis is that prices will go way up (same price as you
      mentioned $6-$7) because of an inability to get inventories
      up. the futures did rise on friday as it appears
      people are expecting a hot summer and maybe sotrims in
      the gulf that will cause problems with gas production
      (good for prices but not much use when you cannot
      produce your product to sell). as i am now 3 days into my
      education of gas companies i am beggingin to understant
      that ths business is a complete gamble. you will be
      either right or wrong, but the decision is up to mother
      nature and you have no clue what she will do. the thing
      is i like taking a bet. i have looked at many of the
      big companies and have also noticed a smaller cap
      company called basin exploration. it has been a bit
      slammed in the last week but it recovered and the chart
      looks good. if the prices go up the p/e will be less
      than 10. what is a reasonable p/e for gas companies or
      does it matter with the huge changes in the prices of
      gas (that cannot be predicted). what do you think of
      bsnx. it seems maxwell says stay witht the big boys as
      they are the ones the funds will but into if the price
      of gas keeps going up. oh ya one banc downgraded
      bsnx this week but also upped their eps for the year.

    • Most other companies have settled this lawsuit
      for a small amount that did not negatively affect
      their stock prices.

      Therefore we should assume
      that BR will get screwed by a huge and unfair
      settlement.

      Perfect logic - for a short...

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BR
42.36+0.41(+0.98%)Aug 28 4:05 PMEDT

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