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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Message Board

  • zorro_32408 zorro_32408 Jun 30, 2000 8:32 PM Flag

    BR earnings


    will be significantly higher than the First Call
    estimates. The situation gets better the longer you hold BR

    Natural gas prices are higher than any
    used in the analysts estimates.

    Yes, I know
    the hedges, but earnings will still crush the
    estimates, now imagine when the hedges come off.

    Gas plays:

    there are others too, the market still doesn't realize
    the dire energy situation we find ourselves

    Wireless, semiconductors, other overpriced sectors in
    technology stocks are teetering on a collapse with the
    economy struggling

    IMO the inflated multiples
    these technology stocks are priced on will meltdown
    when earnings reports in the tech sector start to wilt
    in the summer sun.

    Hang tough folks with BR,
    this stock should be headed north very soon


    This topic is deleted.
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    • that the analyst who announced that BR was hedged
      was also saying that BR is the best play in NG?
      Hedging is just a necessary part of doing business just
      like cancellations, returns of merchandise etc in
      other businesses.

      Also, Ed Hyman was on CNBC
      this AM. He is predicting a slowdown in GDP from 3.5%
      in Q2 to 2% by Q4. He cited higher oil and natural
      gas prices as an additional tax that is going to work
      through the economy. This reduces profits in techs and
      other businesses. I don't think earnings are going to
      be a problem at BR.

    • the quarter was $3.39 per Mcf as reported by The
      Exploration Company of Delaware (TXCO) on Friday.

      represents an astounding increase over the prior quarter.
      And to think the next quarter holds all the promise
      of another huge increase.

    • Hedges today represent future earnings growth -

      BR should be able to show sharp earnings growth from
      unhedged gas this quarter. But as hedges come off on the
      other 40% - quarterly earnings should reflect quarter
      to quarter earnings growth - all other things being

      Of course I dont think they will be equal - I think
      gas is going higher from here.

      Best of luck!

    • If BR beats estimates by 30 cents - BR will

      I get the feeling that BR has been reigning in
      analyst expectations for the past few weeks - resulting
      in a couple of downgrades and a stock price which
      has stumbled from a peak of 46 to 38.

      The good
      news is that BR has appropriately warned the analysts
      - thus hopefully there will be no negative surprise
      on earnings announcement date. I think that the
      stock has overreacted to the hedging issue at a stock
      price of 38 - but we will have to wait and see on that

      Best of luck!

    • check message 3742 on the VPI board for
      danwilson_yorkshire's opinion on br earnings (as well as many others).
      this man has all the hedges down solidly, and his br
      hedging data jives totally with br's annual report on
      it's year 2000 hedges. in spite of all that he is
      estimating br to earn $0.75 vs. first call's (he says)
      $0.44. i have found in other places where the estimate
      was raised to $0.46 by analysts over the past week.
      if earnings are great, we will be seeing some
      preannouncement guidance of them coming from some of the e&p's
      within the next 10-14 days.

    • Yahoo says 7/20/00 and they have a conference call scheduled that day also.

    • when does this company report

    • ABQ is just a random choice of letters. I think
      that a large part of the negative reaction to BRR
      Friday was because of previously undisclosed positions.
      I have enough faith in BR's people to believe that
      they have prepped the Analysts and no surprises are
      forthcoming in the matter of hedges.

    • Thats right. BR up 1 1/4 for the quarter while
      natgas price was up about $1.50.

      Does anybody but
      me think that the market has overreacted to BR's
      fully disclosed hedge - and that the impact of the
      hedge has been discounted in BR stock 2 or 3 times, and
      that when earnings come out that BR will move higher
      because the uncertainty is lifted and it was not nearly
      as bad as had been feared?

      Time will

      Best of luck!

    • This is not a typical message board attack but I would like to ask what do you have against EOG?

      I like BR and EOG. EOG is not as affectd by oil prices.

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