will be significantly higher than the First Call
estimates. The situation gets better the longer you hold BR
Natural gas prices are higher than any
used in the analysts estimates.
Yes, I know
the hedges, but earnings will still crush the
estimates, now imagine when the hedges come off.
BR, HSE, CHK, XTO, COG, POG, KWK,
there are others too, the market still doesn't realize
the dire energy situation we find ourselves
Wireless, semiconductors, other overpriced sectors in
technology stocks are teetering on a collapse with the
IMO the inflated multiples
these technology stocks are priced on will meltdown
when earnings reports in the tech sector start to wilt
in the summer sun.
Hang tough folks with BR,
this stock should be headed north very soon
that the analyst who announced that BR was hedged
was also saying that BR is the best play in NG?
Hedging is just a necessary part of doing business just
like cancellations, returns of merchandise etc in
Also, Ed Hyman was on CNBC
this AM. He is predicting a slowdown in GDP from 3.5%
in Q2 to 2% by Q4. He cited higher oil and natural
gas prices as an additional tax that is going to work
through the economy. This reduces profits in techs and
other businesses. I don't think earnings are going to
be a problem at BR.
the quarter was $3.39 per Mcf as reported by The
Exploration Company of Delaware (TXCO) on Friday.
represents an astounding increase over the prior quarter.
And to think the next quarter holds all the promise
of another huge increase.
Hedges today represent future earnings growth -
BR should be able to show sharp earnings growth from
unhedged gas this quarter. But as hedges come off on the
other 40% - quarterly earnings should reflect quarter
to quarter earnings growth - all other things being
Of course I dont think they will be equal - I think
gas is going higher from here.
Best of luck!
If BR beats estimates by 30 cents - BR will
I get the feeling that BR has been reigning in
analyst expectations for the past few weeks - resulting
in a couple of downgrades and a stock price which
has stumbled from a peak of 46 to 38.
news is that BR has appropriately warned the analysts
- thus hopefully there will be no negative surprise
on earnings announcement date. I think that the
stock has overreacted to the hedging issue at a stock
price of 38 - but we will have to wait and see on that
Best of luck!
check message 3742 on the VPI board for
danwilson_yorkshire's opinion on br earnings (as well as many others).
this man has all the hedges down solidly, and his br
hedging data jives totally with br's annual report on
it's year 2000 hedges. in spite of all that he is
estimating br to earn $0.75 vs. first call's (he says)
$0.44. i have found in other places where the estimate
was raised to $0.46 by analysts over the past week.
if earnings are great, we will be seeing some
preannouncement guidance of them coming from some of the e&p's
within the next 10-14 days.
ABQ is just a random choice of letters. I think
that a large part of the negative reaction to BRR
Friday was because of previously undisclosed positions.
I have enough faith in BR's people to believe that
they have prepped the Analysts and no surprises are
forthcoming in the matter of hedges.
Thats right. BR up 1 1/4 for the quarter while
natgas price was up about $1.50.
Does anybody but
me think that the market has overreacted to BR's
fully disclosed hedge - and that the impact of the
hedge has been discounted in BR stock 2 or 3 times, and
that when earnings come out that BR will move higher
because the uncertainty is lifted and it was not nearly
as bad as had been feared?
Best of luck!