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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Message Board

  • kdd_999 kdd_999 Jul 18, 2000 9:12 PM Flag

    All my energy stocks are down--

    I don't think it's just BR.

    The financial
    press is doing a crummy job of explaining the gas/oil
    problems, and everybody still thinks the saudis are going
    to bail us out of this one. What they neglect is
    that the saudis want oil at about $25 because that is
    a sustainable high price. At $32, the US might
    start thinking about alternative energy programs and
    building fewer SUVs. Also, if our economy tanks due to
    shortages and high prices, people won't buy any more SUVs,
    and that would be unsustainable for the Saudis too.
    BUT what the press doesn't say is HOW MUCH PROFIT
    these stocks are going to have at
    $25/barrel.

    This is our last chance to buy, IMO. Prices will go up
    for the foreseeable future. This could be the decade
    of the energy stocks.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Weakness in stock would suggest that they may
      miss earnings. If they do, they must have done
      something incredibly stupid. Other than hedging more gas
      than they disclosed, I can't imagine what they could
      have screwed up. We will know in the AM.
      Tomorrow
      will be double whammy. Earnings in AM and AGA's after
      lunch. AGA's could be bearish. Northeast was awfully
      mild. Dallas and Houston were seeing record electricity
      usage but that may not offset low usage in New York and
      Chicago.

      No matter what happens tomorrow, BR is a great long
      term investment.

      • 3 Replies to aggiebasher
      • Could you direct me to a specific web site with the latest storage/injection estimates? Thanks in advance.

      • Does anyone know for sure whether BR's quaterly financials are out today or tomorrow?

      • but i have other ng stocks that were down in the
        morning or early afternoon yet came back for slight loss
        or good gain. so i could not bring myself to
        attribute br's weakness to earnings. in feb. 2000, i waited
        to buy br gtc at 30 only to watch in amazement when
        it headed down to about 25. glad i did not sell. got
        rid of it at 43.5 that time. this feels similar
        except for the torture of this two month grind (i have
        been buying all the way down to 36) that has
        frustrated anyone who is either long or short br. br
        management has had ample meetings in june to alert analysts
        if there were any problems with earnings. br has not
        been spending its money unless it has been buying br
        stock. my sense (take a look at the simmons reports or
        some of the br management pitches for analysts) for
        the past year is that br is trying to look good to
        wall street and to possible buy-out suitors by greatly
        improving earnings and cash flow and paying down debt(they
        don't spend too much on drilling and don't seem to know
        where to drill or how to drill -- maybe they could snag
        a great drilling director). if they miss and have
        not warned earlier in july, they should take the
        pipe. i don't think they are going to miss, and based
        on my own calculations of br's historic operating
        costs, br publically available hedge information, lack
        of any news or rumors of ng delivery problems, and
        price of open market ng last quarter, br should crush
        the $0.44 or is it $0.46/0.47 estimates. (ya' know
        xom is also down but the word is out that xom is
        going to kill earnings estimates. note the big august 1
        analyst meeting xom has called after earnings are out in
        late july. this meeting should tell analysts what xom
        is going to do with its new bags of money not to
        apologize for missing the xom numbers.) so if br does not
        make the earnings numbers, the stock is so far down it
        probably won't move, but some suitors might be tempted to
        sniff. my own calculations say some of the the oil
        analysts probably did not want to be oil analysts, but
        that was the only job open.

 
BR
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