Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. Message Board
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All my energy stocks are down--
I don't think it's just BR.
The financial
press is doing a crummy job of explaining the gas/oil
problems, and everybody still thinks the saudis are going
to bail us out of this one. What they neglect is
that the saudis want oil at about $25 because that is
a sustainable high price. At $32, the US might
start thinking about alternative energy programs and
building fewer SUVs. Also, if our economy tanks due to
shortages and high prices, people won't buy any more SUVs,
and that would be unsustainable for the Saudis too.
BUT what the press doesn't say is HOW MUCH PROFIT
these stocks are going to have at
$25/barrel.
This is our last chance to buy, IMO. Prices will go up
for the foreseeable future. This could be the decade
of the energy stocks.-
Weakness in stock would suggest that they may
miss earnings. If they do, they must have done
something incredibly stupid. Other than hedging more gas
than they disclosed, I can't imagine what they could
have screwed up. We will know in the AM.
Tomorrow
will be double whammy. Earnings in AM and AGA's after
lunch. AGA's could be bearish. Northeast was awfully
mild. Dallas and Houston were seeing record electricity
usage but that may not offset low usage in New York and
Chicago.
No matter what happens tomorrow, BR is a great long
term investment.- 3 Replies to aggiebasher
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Could you direct me to a specific web site with the latest storage/injection estimates? Thanks in advance.
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Does anyone know for sure whether BR's quaterly financials are out today or tomorrow?
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but i have other ng stocks that were down in the
morning or early afternoon yet came back for slight loss
or good gain. so i could not bring myself to
attribute br's weakness to earnings. in feb. 2000, i waited
to buy br gtc at 30 only to watch in amazement when
it headed down to about 25. glad i did not sell. got
rid of it at 43.5 that time. this feels similar
except for the torture of this two month grind (i have
been buying all the way down to 36) that has
frustrated anyone who is either long or short br. br
management has had ample meetings in june to alert analysts
if there were any problems with earnings. br has not
been spending its money unless it has been buying br
stock. my sense (take a look at the simmons reports or
some of the br management pitches for analysts) for
the past year is that br is trying to look good to
wall street and to possible buy-out suitors by greatly
improving earnings and cash flow and paying down debt(they
don't spend too much on drilling and don't seem to know
where to drill or how to drill -- maybe they could snag
a great drilling director). if they miss and have
not warned earlier in july, they should take the
pipe. i don't think they are going to miss, and based
on my own calculations of br's historic operating
costs, br publically available hedge information, lack
of any news or rumors of ng delivery problems, and
price of open market ng last quarter, br should crush
the $0.44 or is it $0.46/0.47 estimates. (ya' know
xom is also down but the word is out that xom is
going to kill earnings estimates. note the big august 1
analyst meeting xom has called after earnings are out in
late july. this meeting should tell analysts what xom
is going to do with its new bags of money not to
apologize for missing the xom numbers.) so if br does not
make the earnings numbers, the stock is so far down it
probably won't move, but some suitors might be tempted to
sniff. my own calculations say some of the the oil
analysts probably did not want to be oil analysts, but
that was the only job open.
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