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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. Message Board

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  • dontdropyourlunch dontdropyourlunch Jul 19, 2000 12:28 AM Flag

    All my energy stocks are down--

    but i have other ng stocks that were down in the
    morning or early afternoon yet came back for slight loss
    or good gain. so i could not bring myself to
    attribute br's weakness to earnings. in feb. 2000, i waited
    to buy br gtc at 30 only to watch in amazement when
    it headed down to about 25. glad i did not sell. got
    rid of it at 43.5 that time. this feels similar
    except for the torture of this two month grind (i have
    been buying all the way down to 36) that has
    frustrated anyone who is either long or short br. br
    management has had ample meetings in june to alert analysts
    if there were any problems with earnings. br has not
    been spending its money unless it has been buying br
    stock. my sense (take a look at the simmons reports or
    some of the br management pitches for analysts) for
    the past year is that br is trying to look good to
    wall street and to possible buy-out suitors by greatly
    improving earnings and cash flow and paying down debt(they
    don't spend too much on drilling and don't seem to know
    where to drill or how to drill -- maybe they could snag
    a great drilling director). if they miss and have
    not warned earlier in july, they should take the
    pipe. i don't think they are going to miss, and based
    on my own calculations of br's historic operating
    costs, br publically available hedge information, lack
    of any news or rumors of ng delivery problems, and
    price of open market ng last quarter, br should crush
    the $0.44 or is it $0.46/0.47 estimates. (ya' know
    xom is also down but the word is out that xom is
    going to kill earnings estimates. note the big august 1
    analyst meeting xom has called after earnings are out in
    late july. this meeting should tell analysts what xom
    is going to do with its new bags of money not to
    apologize for missing the xom numbers.) so if br does not
    make the earnings numbers, the stock is so far down it
    probably won't move, but some suitors might be tempted to
    sniff. my own calculations say some of the the oil
    analysts probably did not want to be oil analysts, but
    that was the only job open.

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