"The market has made a major bet that PRKR will lose this court case." THE market. As in one unified voice? Okay....who's market? The shorts market? Yes, shorts, you're PART of the market. (As slimey one too, betting on destruction and the negative. Hoping companies fail.) But there's also longs. They are part of the market too. So, it's all perspective. It's all in your view. Of course shorts believe there's nothing to the patent infringement. We longs believe the opposite. I did my dd, I don't knowingly throw money away. I'm very (very) sure that Q stole this technology and our day is coming. Short position increasing? Good, short squeeze will propel my returns that much higher.
"As slimey one too, betting on destruction and the negative. Hoping companies fail."
This is rubbish:
It implies that if one thinks a stock is outrageously overblown and is going to zero that it would be somehow immoral to put on that position.
This makes no sense as if the shortseller is wrong, as he covers he creates incremental share demand, thus benefitting "the longs" once the short thesis is disproven.
If he's right, his selling pressure (and possibly the public airing of his thesis) will help people that otherwise might have bought in or pay a higher price. Furthermore, his covering at a lower price may help bagholders salvage a few scraps on their investment.
Re"betting on destruction" and "hoping companies fail" as it relates to PRKR is pretty much moot as it has already failed commercially (and by fail I simply mean a company burning gobs of cash with zero revenue and zero customer after years and years of trying to sell something). Actually the PRKR "longs" are betting against QCOM, and I'm sure some on the QCOM message board might consider y'all slimey desperate patent trolls.
"I'm very (very) sure that Q stole this technology"
Based on what? How could you possibly arrive at this conclusion? As a simple question, if it was good enough for QCOM to "steal", why has it not been good enough for absoultely anyone else on the planet who has evaluated it?
To conclude PRKR is a buy at $200 million, you logically must conclude that:
a) The relevent patents are valid and will be judged to be valid (Risk 1 - has your DD reviewed all of the prior art?)
b) If the patents stand up, are they relevent to QCOM's activities (Risk 2 - demonstrating actual violation)
c) If they are relevent that certain QCOM products materially infringe in some manner (Risk 3)
d) That the case is successfully litigated (Risk 4)
e) That a judgement is granted in favor of PRKR (Risk 5)
f) That a judgement, for example based on a reasonable royalty, will be sufficient, after lawyer fees and costs, to remotely justify a $200M market value (Risk 6).
How on earth can you possibly say you are "very very sure", as if you are wrong on any of the above you might lose most or all of your investment.
I am not "very very sure" that PRKR will lose, but based on my DD I think they have some huge challenges, and even if successful the market cap is probably nowhere near justified. E.g. even a high 5 cents per chip times 2 Billion chips is only $100M. And what is the probability of success?
"Our success will only be judged by the successful completion of the agreements, contracts and the like." - Jeff Parker, August 8, 2006
Why Bonk. Such wonderfully detailed posts. All designed to slant to keep the new investor away. Because you're not having that effect on us longs. It's going to be 2x or 3x at minimum. We know what we have. Let's see, you say:
"I'm very (very) sure that Q stole this technology" Based on what? How could you possibly arrive at this conclusion?