Betting heavily on the President may be premature. Right now, any thinking and donating Republican has to be scratching his chin.
The President has some skeletons, politically speaking, and some live problems, e.g., the crappy job situation, the debt and deficit, the cia spy outing, and the perception of his being run like a cheerleader by folks behind the curtain. As an ex-soldier, he's starting to look kinda weak when no one can remember serving with him. That's harsh contrast to his likely opponent, who had a dyed-in-the-wool Republican stand up for him in public.
On the positive side for the President, Iraq is going to eventually work itself out. It's not Viet Nam, and eventually, people want to do business. I'm not too sure about Afghanistan; they are going to build a society on producing heroin to sell to our kids? There's some twisted logic there. But, my guess is that the GI's catch Osama.
The economy is heating up; look at all the commercial/retail construction going on with the low rates. Generally, we will have a pretty vibrant and diverse economy. It will be fun seeing it come back. That'll boost the President's numbers.
A real concern I think is that there will not be a Green Party candidate this year that is as strong as Nader was last year. As I recall, Nader's numbers in Minnesota, cost Gore the election, independent of events in Florida.
Counter balancing the absence of a Green Party effect is the turning tide here in California, with Arnold being governor. He could deliver alot of votes for Bush. A ton of Democrats voted for Arnold. Not sure if that will carry the state, but Arnold is very, very big here. He isn't, however, an ultra right winger, religious zealot though: more of a liberal Republican, as in pro-business, but stay out of my private life, pro-education Republican. He and the President look alittle like oil and water. I don't think they mix. And, that may be a deeper problem for the President. I would like it if his handlers could stage him so he doesn't look like a guy with just one thought in his head. He is smarter than that, it just doesn't look like it.
Anyway, Dow should start paying-off their Democratic insiders now, just as a hedge.
Very good comments. I agree with much of it. Just would rather have Bush than Kerry to be honest. Selfishly, I want tax cuts, more favorable tax ranges, capital gains to stay, death tax to go away, and other financially-related things for a better retirement one day. It's the policy, or the platform, I am after rather than the individual. After all, Congress and Senate drive much of the laws and ways of life for us. Democrats want to repeal tax cuts and take away the gains that many do not seem to appreciate yet. Also, on the defense side I am concerned that terrorists would just go nuts with a new President. Kerry is an unknown in this area, despite his good military record. Safety and favorable taxes, etc. are the reasons why I want Bush back. Thanks again for the insightful post.
A thoughtful and balanced argument but Parkerdad is too dumb to appreciate that. He sees everything in black and white. The best we can hope is that he and his gun toting "clan" hole themselves up in the hills. The Republicans who backed Bush Jnr. are running scared - this guy could actually lose the Whitehouse and the same way his Daddy did. Dow has been banking on sympathy in Congress for asbestos and energy policy shifts - I agree we need to hedge our bets now. Shift more production to the ME and other energy rich locations. At the same time drive out the dead wood like Parkerdad.