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  • itrifunovich itrifunovich Jan 2, 2009 12:31 PM Flag

    I'm out

    You partially have a point. You have a point that it was difficult, if not impossible to predict all these calamities. You are right only partially, because a prudent management has contingency plans. They could have worked in provisions in either or both deals that would address these catastrophic outcomes. I guess they were blindsided with the price war with BASF. However, it would have been better to pay top dollar, then to leave yourself open to this.

    Now, they have to make the best out of it.

    1) Dispatch a strong team to the Middle East, including politicos that have strong ties there. Ask for help from the State Dept. Try to get either a similar deal done (tough), or pressure Kuwaitis to increase their loan on more favorable terms as a compensation for the KDow fiasco. I feel that it is attrocious how the US does(not) use it's diplomatic/military clout to benefit dmoestic corporations (see what French do).

    2) Firm up the bridge loan, go to Buffett for advice, do a lot of math and chart the financial and strategic course forward (sell additional assets, make more cuts in the combined entity?). Dividend is not a sacred cow anymore, either.

    The alternative of reneging on the ROH deal absent a reg. lifesaver is very dubious at best. It means losing billions for sure, the question is just how many.

52.01Nov 27 1:01 PMEST