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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

  • ajbaker58 ajbaker58 Mar 26, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    Where is a good entry point?

    I do not own LNCO but have been watching it, looking for a good entry point. Realistically where do you see this stopping the downtrend? Looking to enter before August, I think the overall market is going to correct before then. I see that $25 has good support on this stock, but it might not get that low. I don't want to try to get it for $25 and have it not get that far down and bounce back. and miss out.
    Also every 4 months not in the stock is almost a dollar in missed dividends. So how low do you think it will get? Please no shorts answer, just long time investors. I think we will see $26 for sure and maybe $25

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    • When I stand back from the trees to take a look at the forest, I still see a company that has zero interest in cutting their dividend. Right now they can just cover it and they would lose a great deal of credibility if they were to cut it. Linn now has to absorb the assets of Barry and cut unnecessary costs as they determine. This surely will take a year or more. Lowered costs will improve the coverage ratio over time. Linn/LNCO may not raise the distribution, but I can't imagine they would reduce it.
      Technically this is not a bad entry point at all. Shorts are certainly having their way with the stock, but this is where the savvy investor takes advantage of the low prices. Buy a third portion of your investment now and the other two-thirds at other opportune times the next 6-9 months. You get to buy near the short term lows and get a great distribution to boot. If you plan to accumulate and hold for many years this is the strategy to take.

    • I am, unfortunately, very, very long LNCO. My suggestion is to avoid the temptation to jump in at what appears to be a cheap price. It has nothing to do with Linn Energy. The whole stock market seems to be tanking so for the moment, hold on to your cash. GLTA

    • Buy some now, maybe 1/5th of your goal. If the price drops buy more. However if it goes to $27 and you really want it, buy the rest. The Berry acquisition is 80% oil and will add significantly to the cash flow.That idiot Cramer said buy at $40 in April/may 2013, less than 1 year ago, then sell at $25 in August., then sell again last week. If oil holds above $90, and NG and NG liquids remain at recent levels this will be a $35-$40 holding, but it will take two good quarters to get there because the institutional gus are dumping as per JP Morgan downgrade. Read the Motley Fool analysis.

    • I am in already in in the $28's on LNCO in my own accounts, but would consider more IF it keeps falling. I initiated a position for my mother today at $26.40 and would add to it as well. It could go lower, but barring any meaningful change in performance of the business, I suspect we are back in the $30's in a few weeks or months. Personally, when I am done buying, I won't watch it so closely other than to assess the likelihood that the distributions will continue as this is simply a monthly cash generator for me and whether it goes up or down in the interim doesn't change its role in my portfolio. GLTA

    • I think the best strategy in cases like this is to put in a few limit buy orders at various prices. Buy a bit here at $26.35, buy some more should it hit $25.75, and then a bit more around $25.20. Don't go all in too soon or else you may have buyers regret. As long as management does what it takes to integrate Berry assets and at the *very* least keep the distribution steady at $2.90 (accounting for the big dilution), I don't see why this won't be back to $30 in a few months. A 10% gain (plus distributions) for just being patient and holding for a few months does not seem too bad! At some point the shorts will get tired of paying the monthly distribution and move on to their next victim.

    • It is pretty clear, LNCO is going to test $25. Friday will be an interesting day, because Linn Energy will probably announce the distributions for the month of April. Buyers would probably enter at that point, but the news has been negative of late.
      If the company waits until Monday to report distributions, which I doubt, the price could test the all-time low. Technically, we are forming a classic reverse head and shoulders. Any negative catalyst from the 1st quarter report in April could send the share price reeling. Positive news should bounce this stock, because the share price is severely over sold. GLTA

      Sentiment: Buy

    • One month ago, I thought 31 was a good entry point. Last week, I thought 28 was a great entry point. I jumped in for a lot of shares a few weeks ago and it has not stopped falling for about a month straight (with a few exceptional days). The trend is certainly still down. I sold most of my shares yesterday. Still have enough interest to keep an eye on things.

      Honestly, your guess is as good as anyone else's. Could easily drop to 20. Could also jump back up to the 30 range. I've lost too much here to care too much anymore.

      But, best of luck to you!

      • 3 Replies to new2nvesting
      • New, keep your losses small, you can alway re-enter at a later time, I don't like avg down, you can get stuck in a bad position with all you money, " Like a Tank in Stalingrad "

      • Ahhh...the classic mistake of emotional investing. Don't worry, we've all been there and done that. Best advice I can give you is go very slow. Buy in increments of 100 or even 50 shares, and make it easy on yourself to cost average down. I'm buying at these levels. I believe the Berry acquisition brings enough 4th qtr. revenue over to offset the dilution from the deal itself, and will cover the dividend without dropping it. Best of luck to you and don't give up. Took me years to learn that patience part of investing, and you can get there. Stay alert and learn all you can.


      • It's ugly, it's bad and I scaled in at 10% dips over my previous buy points over the past year to my max % hold of original investment amount I will tolerate in my portfolio. So I scaled in and got scaled myself! I am holding now only due to the monthly dividend (LNCO version in a tax free Roth Account) knowing the dividend itself will probably get scaled down. That said, I certainly can understand people dumping it and cutting their losses! To ajbaker58 trying to find a good entry point, the trend is still DOWN; the trend is your friend and I don't think it is perhaps done trending down until the brave value investors come in. I don't think there are in yet, but I have been wrong before and certainly wrong on LNCO every scaled step of the way!

31.45+0.16(+0.51%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

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