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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

  • m5_research m5_research Sep 17, 2010 3:41 PM Flag

    Time to buy GNK 9/17/2010

    At a price of $15.30 per share Genco Shipping is an outstanding value. First and foremost GNK represents a leveraged stock for economic recovery. What do I mean by that?

    To understand this you have to compare GNK to say IBM. Let us assume that the economy recovers slowly with acceleration into the first quarter of 2011. IBM stock price might go from $129 to say $160 at best. GNK on the other hand some major positive working for it. First a large short position against the stock. Second a large fleet that could see a dramatic rise in shipping rates. The combination of these two can be like gasoline on the price of the stock.

    Quite literally GNK could rise to $20 to $24 a share in the matter of two or three weeks at any given point in the next two quarters. Given the short position and the small number of shares outstanding I could easily see GNK hitting $30 a share in an intense period of month. Why? Because the extreme volatility in the stock will give no opportunity for the the 5 million plus short shares to cover in a orderly fashion. More likely the shorts caught in the $24 will have to cover enormous losses with a share pool that quite literally will have dried up underneath them. Now couple this with a low P/E and growing world population that will continue to needs goods and you have excellent stock at a dirt cheap price.


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    • cusin- beautiful indeed. renting condos sounds like a good idea, begs question...married? (most women want a permanent spot, imo)
      you got the Green Mountain Boys, Ethan Allen. would also suspect graduates end up in 10th Mmountain? guess you'll be back south after leaves fall or later? Alabama home to Col. Hal Moore,. and recently deceased Col.Robert Howard,(no mention in media- shame on them)

      82nd AA 75/4 C RANGER GL.

    • 1st Cav?

    • Good catch - its a beautiful campus nestled in the Green Mountains of VT. Cold and snowy needless to say in the winter. In fact, our "Hilly Chilly" mountain and cold weather rescue team was famous for making lots of hazardous rescues in the rough terrain of the northeast for many years.

      About 4 years ago I packed up and moved from sw FL to the Mad River Valley, one valley over from the Dog River Valley where Norwich is located. Its a bit of heaven here but the knees and head don't take so well to it in winter so I do the 2 day "commute" twice a year between FL and VT. I rent 2BR/2BA condo's at each end, furnished, with cable, at much less than an unfurnished apartment runs. There are as you might guess countless deals out there these days for people like me who want the best of both worlds.

    • cusin- thanks for charts. our thinking re: commodites/shipping comeback is same, just hasen't happened. china playing pricing games and manulation of yuan, own economy at expense of their own people. culture there is they will sacrifice all for govt. still love and revere mao. btw. spent alot of time on midnight strolls along the 'trail' near the three boarders. no place for 'boot louies' LOL. Salute returned GL.

    • indi- what is indica? i'm ignorant i guess. i don't think it's really 'shareholdres'(as in longterm)selling. think it's battle between shorts/traders. eventually fundies will win IMHO. shippers historically pay grear div., but just don't see it near term, 2 or 3 blowout Q's could produce one though. Q3 ER will be very interesting, GL

    • as far as instutional trading goes, look at the way govt. unloading C shares. don't see it but you know it.

    • Norwich. sounds like a top notch school. GL

    • cusin- will say VMI? let me google

    • robts, I posted a comment to you under another alias by mistake - WPDragon - I don't post here often and forget I had that old alias... it had a bunch of charts of interest. I generally post under "ain't no fortunate son" on the SA and ZH blogs if you're ever over that way.

      I guess I know where your less enjoyable duty station was in 68-71... sounds like a couple of tours no doubt you must have seen some schitt. I was attending the nation's oldest private military college during that time (bet you can't guess its name - not any of the ones we typically think of) and actually got commissioned as a 2nd Louie by Westie himself in late May 1972, the day I got my diploma. They didn't need any more inexperienced cannon fodder by then so I served stateside.

      Welcome home. I salute you.

    • Yes. Your bases forming is in anticipation of the January rush. We are just starting a long bull. October might show some consolidation, but when January rolls around, this market is off to the races. The April high was probably the first shoulder. This coming April we will be forming the head (Dow 11 750 at least).

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