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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

  • killrbee99 killrbee99 Feb 2, 2011 7:16 AM Flag

    Earnings estimates dropping...

    Now at $2.29 down from $2.78 10 days ago. Will likely continue to drop below $2 in coming weeks based upon spot market contracts.
    When 2012 earnings estimates start appearing, don't be surprised to see them in the $1 range or lower. My estimates show near breakeven in 2012.

    Those that rant about the ridiculously low PE should consider the forward earnings impact. Historical PE of 6-7 in this industry.... even lower for those dependent on spot market.

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    • killrbee whats your next earning estimate?

    • Getting worse...Now at an even $1 for FY 2011. Less than 25% of FY 2010 earnings. Completely unsustainable PE at these levels.

      All Mar Options sold(and posted on this board) expired worthless today. Up $20K for the month and $70K+ since beginning of the year. Still holding some Apr short $11 and $12 calls(also posted) and may add to that position on any spikes much above $11. From a technical basis, it's a bit oversold, so it may base or bump up a bit from here, but don't expect the trend to change or least of all a rally to $15.

      I've given you the recipe to follow here.. and not a single prediction I've made has been directionally wrong. In fact many have been too optimistic.

      Next prediction, Q1 2011 EPS in the area of $0.30 - $0.32/share. Big miss to current consensus of $0.43.

    • Now at $1.28 for Full year 2011, down from $2.78 90 days ago.

      Q1 2011 is at $0.44 and they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of meeting that...

      2012 is now showing a LOSS of ($0.08) and 2013 is a whopping loss of ($1.51).

      Expect signficant price target adjustments and/or downgrades to come.

      The only reason they may have not came already is possibly due to an impending ATM offering and the brokerage firms competing for offering rights.

      That last comment is pure speculation/conspiracy theory on my part...

      • 1 Reply to killrbee99
      • Now at $1.17 for full year 2011. Current price of $12+ implies a forward PE over 10 which is unsustainable in this industry (in general) and specifically for GNK with it's debt load and rising reliance on spot rates.

        For those jumping for joy over the rise in the BDI... It will take much more than a 40% rise to allow GNK to meet earnings targets for the coming years. For example, if Capes rise to $25K/day(and other classed remain the same), GNK will still be unprofitable in 2012.

        If this thing touches $12.50 again, I'm adding to my short option positions...

        Good Luck

    • congrads. how your posts on this board influence your earnings?
      in kipplings books they were the most fearsome predators in jungle

    • Have a bad day yesterday?

    • "Told you to cover".... what a laugh.

      Unlike you, I've posted my trades on this board with rationale behind them. They are all in this thread.

      Let's review:

      75 Jan $14 calls sold on 12/15 for $1.10 = $8,250, expired worthless, 100% profit

      75 Feb $14 calls sold on 12/23 for $0.60 = $4,500 still holding…

      150 Feb $14 calls sold on 1/5 for $1.20 = $18,000 still holding.

      100 Jan $15 calls sold on 1/5 for $0.60 = $6000, expired worthless, 100% profit.

      225 Feb $13 Calls sold on 1/25 for $0.60 = $13,500, still holding

      If GNK stays below $13 by next Friday, which I’m not too worried about, all above options will expire worthless. Gross profit = $50,250, enough to buy you lots of counseling for your anger management problem.

      I have not opened any new positions, since GNK typically runs up into earnings. I probably will after opex next Friday.

    • Miggie,

      I've obviously touched a nerve with you. Did you buy some of those calls I sold that are now worthless....?

      Regarding your ridiculous statement - "If they were they would see future improvement and well profitable levels"

      The FFAs do show show improvement, at least for Capes and Panas in the out years. The levels are very profitable(3X to 4X) for an unleveraged shipper. Even GNK which is highly leveraged may show a small profit at these levels. A small profit won't cut it when it comes to servicing the debt load though...

      There are many out there calling for extremes. Some say a crash in rates in coming and others look for rates to spike up to levels of 2008. I don't think either extreme will happen, but I give greater odds for a crash.

      What's more likely is that this industry will limp along for many years at marginal rates. The leveraged shippers will struggle to survive and probably dilute to square up their balance sheets.


    • "Buzz off and find a friend."

      My, my, my...such hostility. What is it that triggers such heat? Even when I think people are complete and utter idiots, like now, I try not to be so harsh. It's hard on the blood pressure. "Killer" here is one of our posters who is a notch above average. Now, why try to silence, or drive him away with harshness like this. There is no shortage of genuine morons about this place upon whom to spend your wrath. People like yourself, for instance. Why not direct this unpleasantness upon these lower life-forms.

    • this seems to be a good news. After all, the street was expecting a disastrous depression of earnings with the current levels of BDI

      i think GNK issues this to calm the market about their capacity to honor their debt and stay well positioned to take benifit of sport market when it comes back

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