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Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd. Message Board

  • jimdddddd jimdddddd Jul 18, 2012 6:25 AM Flag

    Buy of a lifetime here. Some people paid over $20 USD

    for what we will pay $3 for. No doubt this is not a $20 stock but it surely is a $14 stock. Patience will be rewarded here.

    Pay the lady.....Pay the lady......

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    • There are only a few large miners; then have at least some control over pricing.

      At a minimum, they can do as the nat gas producers do and "shut in" production until pricing improves.

      And then there is the issue of port capacity. Just because a mine can produce more doesn't mean there is sufficient infrastructure to transport increased product to port and then load.

      Australia was increasing through-put at several of their ports. Audio might have up-to-date information on expansion, etc.

      This is an issue on the consumption end of things as well. India, in particular, is constrained by infrastructure limitations.

    • This stock is a long dated option, that will either triple or be worthless by January 2014.

      On the bad side
      The drybulk orderbook still looks VERT VERY bad until the later half of 2013, and maybe even the first half of 2014 and even then it will take a while for the excess supply to match demand.

      It is possible the chinese government may subsidize ship builders which would make a bad situation worse.

      On the good side:
      If spot iron ore from australia and brazil prices fall significantly, it could push domestic chinese miners out of the market thus greatly increasing demand for ships. Spot ore prices are likely to keep on falling as miners are greatly expanding production beyond the demand.

 
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