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Chelsea Therapeutics Internatio Message Board

  • iknightu iknightu Nov 28, 2013 7:20 PM Flag

    What Price If FDA Approval?

    I'm thinking around $25 what do you think? When the safety review board votes in the next few weeks with a green light, I'm thinking the stock price could move up to $9 to $10 per share and if approval $25-$30

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    • Geraldine has her lucky chipit on 21

    • jv3p@att.net jv3p Nov 29, 2013 12:15 PM Flag

      There was a Seeking Alpha article last year that had $28 as a target price. It was based on $500 million yr sales and using 5x sales to get at around 2 billion market cap. In my previous posts, I used company's own sales projections of $300-$375 million using 3x sales to get around a billion market cap. My assessment would lead to a share price of around $14. Now the $300-$375 million sales projection only is based on 15-20% of treated existing patients. So the questions regarding CHTP should be as follows. What are chances of Northera approval? If approved, what would yearly sales be at peak? Will CHTP gain a bigger share of market exceeding the conservative 15-20% of existing treated patients? Will Northera end up being the lone drug of choice for NOH?, Will other indications be added such as vertigo or fibromyalgia? What will sales be then? Now I used 3x sales for market cap. valuation. I really don't know what figure times sales is used to value biotechs, but I've read 3-5x or more. Most biotechs are driven purely by speculation based on value of potential sales of drug candidates. This is not the case for CHTP. CHTP should be valued at around $14 now if based on future value of Northera and the sales potential it will generate. The stocks that are valued prematurely are usually the ones that are promoted in publications like Barron's and the like. CLSN comes to mind. This was in Barron's when stock was near $2 with a price target of $10. This was based on their drug technology being valued at a billion dollars. The stock did reach near $10 and then crashed when drug technology didn't quite pan out. Here at CHTP, we have a drug close to approval with real sales on the horizon. If this was profiled in Barron's, I think we'd see $14 right now. IMO.

    • Chelsea's management indicates $ 300-375 M sales at 30-35% market share.
      77-78 M shares at $ 10 pps yields already $ 3/4 B market cap.

      Most are looking at $ 7-8 pps for about $ 1/5 B market cap considering market share remains at 30-35%, question is what happens when market share increases, but for sure, will not be in 2014.

      For early 2014, be happy with $ 7-8 pps and look forward to 2015 for more

      Will be totally different with buyout but so far, no mention of it anywhere

    • I think that is a bit aggressive, I am thinking we should see 10.00 if we get approval in February. I hope you are right!!!! Loll

 
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