That's what I'm banking on. Price is based on potential. Potential is based on completion of milestones. Hint, the share price per milestone is going up. Here's another hint, only one 2013 milestone out of 6 has been completed this year as based on the current corporate presentation. Additionally, risk drops as milestones are completed. Financing commitments for Sabine (Trains 3/4), Commercial agreements for both Sabine (primarily Train 6 ) and Corpus (3 Trains), and lastly regulatory approval for Corpus are all projected to be completed by the end of 2013. Any hiccup is a problem, but if there are no hiccups, I can't see how this doesn't get to between $40 and $45 by the end of the year. $40 is 33% gain from here. I think the above is worth more than a 33% gain.
Current revenues are basically irrelevant. When you look at $226 mil a year to the potential of $2.9 bill a year (Sabine) as based on 5 trains--not 6, potential shouts that the price will go higher the closer we get to operations. There are no contracts allocated to Train 6 as based on the current corporate presentation. See slide entitled "LNG Sale and Purchase Agreements." I believe Cheniere will use some of the Train 6 capacity for the spot market.
If Corpus comes to fruition, add another $1.74 bill at minimum to future revenues. All bets off on the 33%. We saw what happened last year to Cheniere. Lazy math, just divide Sabine projected revenue by # Sabine trains used (5) then multiply by Corpus trains (3). Contracts at Corpus will probably be at higher rates in light of what happened at Sabine. At Sabine, Fixed Fees $/MMBtu went from $2.25 in the early contract with BG and the rest had to pay $3.00.
You could be right ylwsnake. You are in agreement with 1 of the 7 analysts on this stock. But then again you could be wrong. As the other 6 analysts see a price in the lower 30s in the next 12 months. Only time will tell if you are right or wrong. The only problem is you have more against you than with you.
The Energy Department said Friday that it had given preliminary authorization to Freeport LNG Expansion L.P. and FLNG Liquefaction LLC to export up to 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of liquefied natural gas from its existing facility in Quintana Island, Texas. The Freeport project is a joint venture between ConocoPhillips COP +0.50% and other private investors.
Energy Department approval is needed for exports to countries with which the U.S. doesn't have a free-trade agreement, a category that includes major trading partners in Europe and Asia. The project still requires final approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.