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PDF Solutions Inc. Message Board

  • quack137 quack137 Apr 27, 2010 2:13 AM Flag

    EPS calculation

    Going forward - Let's say that the entire gainshare is pure profit... with $20M a year and 27M float - it means 75 cents a share. At a very conservative PE of 14, stock price is $10+.

    Any comments?

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    • Don't forget they have $1.30/share in net cash, and nominal on-going capex needs.

      Biggest problem: we have so little information about their business prospects, how do we know where to normalize the gain-share revenue?

      Industry trends indicate the wind will be at their back for some time (increasing foundry capex, more and more challenges at leading-edge nodes, etc). However, we have no clue whether their solution has truly become "strategic" to any of their customers. Dr. John would of course say this is so, but how does a rational, reasonably intelligent, industry-knowledgeable person independently confirm? (I could care less whether he gives me 1Q-ahead guidance, but I do care whether he gives me enough info to independently generate a range of outcomes in the year+ ahead)

      Including a link to an EETimes article out today. Considering that 2 of the 3 major foundries mentioned are PDFS customers, that should make us feel very good. But..but..but...how the eff can we make a reasonable guess what this means in terms of a potential range of future gain-share business?

      http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=224700530

      Also wondering what happened to all the talk of memory customers back in 2006/2007/1H08. Their excuse used to be that memory guys' finances went down the toilet in 2008/09. That is not an excuse anymore. Would be good to get an honest answer to this one. Is it that the memory guys don't really need the PDFS solution? Or is it something else?

      If I sound negative, sorry...I'm somewhat optimistic about their prospects.

      If anyone buys into what I've said above, would encourage you to contact the company and press them on doing a better job presenting information. They could do much better presenting existing information in a manner that allows outsiders to assess the progress of their underlying business. At the least, show something more than token effort in this area.

 
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