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KIT digital, Inc. Message Board

  • booyeahtribe booyeahtribe Jun 2, 2010 6:22 PM Flag

    Who are the morons selling this at $10.5????

    I find this funny more than anything - 80% recurring revenue - just last week Kaleil said falling euro helps co w/ more costs in euro than revs, he said european weakness has no impact on their backlog at all - that they grew during the 2008 recession. He also said just last week they were doing over 8 million revs per month - uh folks that's $24+ million in revs for q2 and the street expects $22 million??

    So they basically guided up yet nervous hedge funds sell or short something vaguely european?? Um that's stupid. When this ends we'll ramp up as quick as we fell - probably starting this week. Janney Montgomery in their initiation report yest gave a DCF value of $21 bucks a share on numbers that are conservative - and somehow selling at $10.5 makes sense?? HAHAHAHA. That is just foolish but thanks - i'm buying more. 80% recurring revenue folks! 50% organic growth, exposure to ipad video revolution... must i go on?? $20 by end of august.

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    • Is it just me, or do I feel like the moron who was buying at $10.50....this is a major disappointment right now.....it definitely has the chance to rocket back up, but just a heartwrenching situation....I wonder how Kaliel feels right now since he has put up alot of cash into the stock now at market prices?......Good luck to all

      • 1 Reply to onenuttytrader
      • I have been following this and have taken profits @ $ 13.50 based on common sense . I am not comfortable with the fact that 9 months ago we had 5m shares outstanding that were trading $ 7-10 and now they should be worth that much or more given absolutely MINDBOGGLING dilution. I don't believe the stock is worth 5 or more times than it was worth 9 months ago. You don't get rewarded for dilution and before acquisitions pay for themselves work needs to be done and that takes time. Eventually this will thrive I am sure, but there has been incredible hype here and if you are building a business for the sake of being taken over....there is a good chance it just might not happen.

    • The $10.05 mark excited buying. At 11 est. the stock hit the bottom LOD $10.05 and in the next 50 minutes almost 60k shares were traded. The market got to a point that invited buyers. MMs put their wares out on the table and adjust the price to move inventory, today was a pretty much textbook.
      Of course we deserve to be higher. I have to believe BC is close to IPO and the only listed competitor is KITD. BC's VC's should be all over the bid here IMO.
      I added yesterday, a day early. Nothing new for me.

    • one word for you: dilution..

    • I don't buy that the stock has to retreat 35% in a month simply because it is up a bunch - look at other stocks like DGIT and AKAM that are riding the ip video tailwind and like kitd printed a good number in may - they both stayed flat and have been pushing to new highs. I think this selling is by idiot funds who have gotten too bearish on the mkt and europe. They are just liquidating all microcap stocks and anything related to europe. Either way it is temporary - but really its way overdone for this thing.

      Look at the value SNIC just paid to buy DIVX (certainly not a perfect comp but video software related). They are valuing This at 1.7x 2011 sales with sales growing at 13% and no history of profitability. By comparison, KITD is trading currently at 1.2x 2011 Sales and growing 45% and should print north of 30 million in EBITDA next yr and over 1 buck in EPS. This should be at 4x sales in mkt and 5-6x in takeover. And its trading at 5-6x EBITDA with EBITDA growing 50+%. That's a joke - it should be 15-20x and it will. AKAM is trading at 14x EBITDA with EBITDA only growing at 11%. Granted its a bigger stock etc - but this valuation gap will be filled in time. Just need a bit of patience.

      • 1 Reply to booyeahtribe
      • Well said, Booyeahtrib...

        As of the most recently filed 10Q (5/17/2010), there were 23.1 million shares outstanding.

        If we assume that KITD is currently on a run rate of $100 million in revenue (Kaleil said in his presentation at the KBRO Conference, on 5/26/2010, that the Company was billing $8 million per month, or $96 million annualized), and if we apply a multiple of 4x sales, then we would get a stock price of $17.32. And, of course, this assumption gives the company no credit for the $67 million of cash (I think that was the number Kaleil mentioned in the KBRO Conference presentation---please correct me if I am wrong) they have on the balance sheet ($2.90 per share).

        If you are correct in your assumption that KITD can generate $30 million or more in EBITDA next year, and if we applied the same 14x multiple that AKAM trades at, then we would get a stock price of $18.18.

    • Pretty much all valid points but you're missing that a fair number of institutions were taking bites from $7 all the way up to $15. That's a serious gain if you can book it, and make your own personal bonus etc.

      Most of us guys on the board here are really long term, I figure I'll have been here over 5 years by the time a significant price target is reached, which I'm hoping keeps the tax bill low.

 

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