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iStar Financial Inc. Message Board

  • JWtechy JWtechy May 1, 2009 8:11 AM Flag

    Warning to Retail Shorts...

    And I have no current position in SFI...

    We have passed the danger zone and broke the double top formation as of the last couple days of struggle.

    This market will resume a normal advance with same high volatility, which will shake many a long along the way.

    But if you are a retail short at current or lower levels, it is largely game over. You can be crushed given the near non-resistance form this point forward.

    I suggest you cover and go long. The market is the final arbiter of prognosis on fundamentals. It also has self healing properties.

    I'll be back on a pullback after I recover some recent damage...hold the fort till then...

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    • you know nothing loser this pos will see 2 before 3.50

    • JW,

      Curious as to what the "danger zone" is in a double top. Being a double top is a bearish formation. Can you elaborate on your tech analysis and thought process?

      • 1 Reply to ckostas
      • I really suck at communicating this type of info. Sometimes I think its an ongoing conversation mostly with Doc.

        But my analysis is not specific to SFI, it was more a statement about the S+P and DOW, S+P 500 being a more broad market reflective index. It has been struggling between a double top and a pennant formation of late. The 875 level was a key resistance level that needed to be broken decisively,imo. It wasn't the first day, it was the second (last couple days). This story is still being played out as I type. So the question, would a break down below 875, (it currently sits at 870 ) throw technicians back in to the bear camp? Possible. But you can't make a judgement until the close.

        There has been a sufficient tug of war between strategic short and long, that one would think the fundamentals would be a deciding vote. Given the unclearness of the fundamentals, I'm forced to move my thinking from the day to day and extend to a 10 month decision base, as I mentioned yestereday.

        My sense is the overall bias of this market is bulish. We have heard enough earnings reports that clearly indicate a "beat of expectations" as the majority. So, the question will we resume a V shape recovery or sink into something closer to a U?

        10 months from here, stocks will be higher. I think residential real estate will recover ahead of commercial at the I'm playing home builders for now.

        Normal bull market recovery, tends to see down opens and positive closes relecting a climb of the wall of worry.

        I'm hunkered down, and will try and resist the minute by minute timing, that was working ok, but as turn me "dizzy".

        Hope that helps...