I feel compelled to address your concern:
"I am long 30k shares right now...nothing major. I believe that this might be a great story, but the one big question that keeps nagging at me is this: How high can this stock really go with 1.1 billion shares outstanding? Even with great results, this going to $1 with a $1.1 billion market cap seems rather unlikely. Again, I am long and would love to see this climb to $50...but with those outstanding shares, it really is going to be difficult.... "
So, first you must be aware that the average LONG TERM classical fair value for a company is about a 15 to 1 Price to earnings ratio. Now,, right now we have no earnings,,, This fact however is in the process of changing.. This is why I am invested here. ACTC is in the process of transforming itself from and R&D start-up to a clinical company with REVENUE generating products.
If you have done your DD ( Due Diligence) a term that relates to research before buying a stock,, then you already know these FACTS.
1. The program we have approvals for is for the treatment of eye disease, and it represents a 30BILLION DOLLAR MARKET in the US alone.
2. This Program is only one on many that we have in the works.
3. The trials are fully funded.
4. For several reasons, We will have a monopoly in the US for 7 Years after PHASE III approval of this 'Blindness Cure" - Note I said CURE - not treatment.
NOW EVEN IF WE CAN ONLY EXECUTE CAPTURING 10% of this market in the US, This represents 3 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR IN REVENUE for ACTC , in the next 1-2 years out,, OK might be a little longer depending on approval cycle - But this lead s to another FACT,
5. We are on ADVANCE APPROVAL - due to Orphan Status.
6. 3 Billion a year - remember - this represents only 10% of the Potential US MARKET - at an average margin of 40-50% for new product introductions - EQUATES TO 1.5 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR in EARNINGS!
7. AT 1.5 BILLION a year in EARNINGS, with an ULTRA CONSERVATIVE PE of 5 NOT 15,, we get a share price of $4.00 per share EVEN AT 2 Billion shares outstanding,, so you see,,, even if we were to effectively DOUBLE the number of outstanding shares to 2plus BILLION your investment can conservatively be expected to increase by more than 2000% over the next 2 years.
8. Many factors point to this being HIGHLY LIKELY, including the fact taht we are now fully funded, and the trials are 100% effective in animal studies. Additionally, we already know the treatments work in CHINA & Germany.
9. SO AS YOU CAN SEE - I have been very CONSERVATIVE in these estimates, the reality and Probably is taht we will capture much more than 10% of the US market - estimate 60-80% of the 30 billion dollar figure, and the PE is most likely to be 40-50 not 5.
I'll let you do the math.
10. NOW add to the the fact that we are also persuing even bigger markets related to blood supply, vasculature system regeneration, and organ replication, and you start to feel pretty good about your investment.
SO YOU SEE,, The number of oustanding shares in MINISCULE related to the potential markets and revenue - - ACTC WILLLLLLL be the next big Pharma - and quite possibly even the BIGGEST... WE do not want to be bought out, nor do we need to be.
HOPE THIS HELPS!
Regards and Good Profit to you,,,
Al The Profit
Though maybe a little optimistic, does Al's March 6th post answer the problem of an increase in the number of outstanding shares (if this really is the case).
Wondering what both longs and bashers think about Al_the_Profit's analysis. It seems sound to me.
Hi al, what can you tell me about actc's rpe program and their blood program. Why do you think they will be successful. What are your thoughts on the myoblast program.
Why has the NIH not announced if they will/will not approve the rewording, in your opinion.
First, the RPE program was a critical program decision in the life of ACTC. It was the brainchild of our beloved former CEO Bill Caldwell. Bill realized quite early on that if Embrionic Stem Cell research was to continue, we could not afford to have a "Risky" program for our first venture in commercialization. He asked the questions and tasked the management team to identify , "Low Hanging Friut" that could quicklly be plucked and bring the promise of substantial revenue to the then struggling company, In fact we were on the verge of bankruptcy. The management and scientific team settled on the RPE program and dry AMD as a program that met all the qualifications, and for amny reasons, amooung them;
1. The eye is an immune privledge site. Our Scientist know that there will be no "rejection" of these cells in the eye.
2. The eye is also relatively separated from the rest of the body, making it easier to keep track of implanted cells.
3. We all know that the DrY AMD market is 30 Billion in the US.
4. The patents that ACTC has recieved, related to the production of RPE cells gives the company a dominant position in the industry. They produce an extremely effictive barrier for any competition to enter this space.
NOw, here comes the next stroke of genius! Our management team and scientists determined that a 'RARE" form of AMD is Stargadt's disease which is virtually the same affliction, but it occurs in children,, This market is much smaller - allowing ACTC to go for ORPHAN DRUG STATUS for the Stargadt's program, KNOWING THAT THIS WOULD RECIEVE FDA APPROVAL much sooner than the DRY AMD - However also knowing that once approved, the Stargadt's treatment is virtually identical to the 30 billion dollar Dry AMD program. Getting approval for Stargadt's and ORPHAN STATUS means much quicker deployment for the DRY AMD program. GENIUS! ALSO I have a DR friend who informs me that once Stargadt's can be treated Successfully,, the treatment can be prescribed " OFF LABEL" for dry AMD, getting our revenue toe in the door much sooner.Thanks BILL< BOB< ETC< ETC,,,
The RPE cells Treatment has been 100% , yes 100% effictive in animal studies,,UN-HEARD Of.
So, anyone who can do some simple math can project that ACTC will be gerenating many billions of dollars in Revenue in the not to distant future,,
THE HARD WORK IS ALREADY DONE!
Revenue is on the way , and most of the world doesn't know it yet,, Except for you, me , and a few of our friends here.
NOw, I running outt asteam here,, I'll address the rest of your question a little later,
Regards & Good Profits to you
AL The Profit