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  • cancelmadmoney cancelmadmoney Jun 2, 2012 12:02 PM Flag

    What is the best realistic case scenario?

    I've been looking thru some of these smaller companies, taking in all info I can and would like to make some buys and not look at them again for a long time.

    ACTC has popped up as one of them along with countless others, being in a new area that has so much potential and this has obviously been beaten to a pulp, my question is simple.

    Within reason, what could be the best case scenario for this stock?
    The worst case is obvious since it's already in the pinks and can go to fractions of 1 penny, but is it possible this may split and take off like ROSG or other companies that were bought up by institutions after r/s and coming back to the big boy game?

    Any post is welcome, but would appreciate reasonable ones. Thx.

    I currently do not have position in this company, just window shopping for now I guess.

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    • Just checking in, i appreciate the info. I started with a much smaller position then originally planned of 40k at .06776. I know it probably doesn't compare to the longs here, but my overall belief is in the science. I am looking for some solid direction either way over the next coming weeks and will add strictly from profits of other trades along the way. Most likely breaking the 100k share mark if I like the direction. First step of committing is already done though.

      Thank you again.

    • ROSAG was not bought by any big institutions. It was driven up to obscene heights by retarded day traders who have no clue what the company does-or should I say hopes to do. This stock as 100 time the potential on a bad day. Watch and learnt.

      • 1 Reply to opifraud
      • It's all been helpful, one more question/concern. Does actc go with/against market or is it married to any other stock chart that would give an indication on performance?

        Bios aren't usually affected by the overall market except when we lose 1,000 points within two weeks then it all goes out the window. Does this have any outside indicators or is it just the way the wind blows that day?

    • The potential and realistic case scenario would be stalking horse bidders grazing at actc doors. The outcome would not be in the best interest for the lowly retail investors.jmho

    • A total of 30 posts.

      LOL FU go shop at WalMart

    • pay the sec there suit, pay the last of the other suits, start buying back shares at a fast rate. reverse split, right after split announce news of hostile bidding war, or big jv. The hostile bid take over is very likily, but only after a reverse split not before. He already said no need for poison pill since theres so many shares out there. So I think right after they do a reverse split a company will do a hostile take over and either keep everything together, or sell each product one at a time, inlcuding patents.

      I want to get in maybe within the next few month well see. Yes I know before reverse split, this is not a long term hold for me. LOL.

    • SELL before we reach a penny.

    • The outstanding number of shares are a concern, comparison to a company like Siri, apples and oranges but without a r/s it may not see over a dollar for a very long time. If they go with a split on the high end of 1:80, guess my concern there would be if it would sell off and go lower or go as planned and attract buyers to boost the pps?

      It looks like an investment at these levels wouldn't be worth sitting on for less than 100k shares, which wouldn't be much more of a stretch then my initial amount. Bios get played with so much but as long as the science is sound, there is always a good opportunity. Which is what I'm searching deeper for, other then an occasional pump article by hedges.

    • The recent pop in ROSG is similar to the pop in DNDN a couple of years ago, and somewhat similar to the pop in DNA from $40 a number of years ago. The similarities are that they were perceived to be on the "threshold to imminent profits of significant levels" resulting in the pops.

      In the case of DNA, the announcement that the Phase 3 trial of its cancer blood vessel suppression drug was successful meant that it drug would be on the market soon to make significant profits. As it turned out, the drug was very profitable, and the stock kept rising after the initial pop, until the company was bought out by Roche.

      In the case of DNA, when the announcement that the Phase 3 trial of its cancer vaccine met objectives meant that its cancer would be on the market soon to make significant profits. As it turned out, the vaccine was successfully commercialized, but sales was not as rosy as thought. The stock went from a low of just above 2 and half dollars a couple of months before the announcement to near 20 times higher a couple of years after the announcement pop, and the stock has since fell back to single digit.

      In the case of ROSG, the cancer-type test does not need FDA Phase trials so that it is easier to get to market, but the test is fairly expensive (but not extremely expensive) so that it needed insurance companies and Medicare to be willing to pay for the test. Recently, it announced that Medicare showed willingness to pay for the test. Before this announcement, there were only miniscule demands for the test during the last couple of years on the market. It remains to be seen whether having Medicare (and thus other private insurers) pay for the product will dramatically increase demand for the test.

      In the case of ACTC, it is not (to anyones knowledge) on any "threshold to imminent profits of significant levels." It is still in early stages of the FDA Phase 1 trial. It is working to complete the first low dosage coherts. It is preparing to move to the second increased dosage level. Even at the initial lowest dosage level, it announced some small, none trivial, and somewhat significant improvements in the vision of the trial patients. One of the first two patients is able to discern individual fingers instead of just a blur when viewing her hand held at arm length in front of her. One is able to notice her wrist watch. One is able to gain enough confidence to walk through a shopping mall. Before year 2000, and even before year 2008, such news can attract a great deal of investment money, but today? It is hard in these economic times, even though the company is small and need relatively small amounts of money to further its developments.

    • Thank you, so far what I've been reading up on is in line with what you guys are saying. My last 3 out of 4 bio plays paid out. Unfortunately I fell too much for the chtp hype cause I didn't want to believe they could continually fail I've and over again even after early positive results on more then one of their drugs.

      I have just over 5k cash I'm looking to use for a play here, and since it recently hit new lows, I don't see much point in waiting around after early next week to see if it would go lower.

      In these cases, I start with a position of about 5k, actc current pps would bring me to about 75k shares, and i only add after if things look good. Even averaging up at a higher price, just for peace of mind. I will keep looking into actc, but I do like the risk/reward so far for long term. I appreciate the info.

    • Oh, best realistic case scenario...30 billion dollar market for AMD that is tappable. If they can realize 5% of that, then revenue potential is upwards of 1.5 billion dollars.

      Arbitrarily, I think if these trials succeed then I could see ACTC sitting at 1$ per share according to today's share structure, which would obviously be quite a gain. Some out there feel that this is a massively low estimate given the other products ACTC is developing with even larger, untapped markets. Caesar de Cuenca genuinely believes the current patent protection we have could get a value of the company above 50$ per share, again at today's structure. He is quite well-respected on iCell, even if that's a crazy pipedream.

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