I for one am very excited about the prospect of the FDA giving the go ahead for the program,, this could be a very big deal as far as revenue,, and the most important part about this is that the platelets are pure,, which means, no potential antibody reaction,, there will be no blood or serum mixed in so you should not have to agitate them, like now, and there will be tons of them so most any hospital could have them readily in the ER and OR to plug up holes, that in itself is huge,,
We have big things to look forward to this year overall,,
Platelets are key elements in maintaining blood vessel integrity – or hemostasis – and are central to wound healing and tissue regeneration after injury or surgery. Platelet transfusions are a mainstay in treating trauma, and are increasingly be used to promote healing from a wide range of surgeries. When platelet levels go down and result in thrombocytopenia, such as when bone marrow is destroyed or suppressed, the decrease in platelet function is often the leading cause of morbidity – such as seen in sepsis, cancer and preeclampsia. Yet platelets are by far the most difficult of the blood products to maintain for any extended period of time. They cannot be frozen or refrigerated. Instead, they must be stored at room temperature which limits the shelf life of platelets to 5–7 days both because of loss of activity and risk of bacterial contamination during storage. The reality is that storage and limitation on the number of people willing to donate platelets has limited the practical use of platelets. Based on meetings with trauma surgeons and government officials, we estimate that, but for limitations on donor platelet supply, there would be a demand for additional 1-2 million units of platelets per year. These factors all point to a huge opportunity for platelets that can be manufactured in culture from renewable stem cell sources (such as our hES and iPS cells!) – both in terms of demand and purity. We believe we have made the key discoveries required to scale manufacturing in order to generate large numbers of doses of platelets from stem cells to make commercialization of stem cell derived platelets an upcoming reality. This market may be as large, or larger, than our opportunity in the RPE market.
If we assume that ACT captures 1% of the dry AMD market in major markets (.5 million out of approx. 50 million potential patients) at a price of $5k-10k per dose, that's $5B-10B. If ACT were able to address all unmet additional platelet units demanded per year (up to 2 million units) at an average price of $540 per unit, then we are looking at just over $1B per year revenue from platelets. To be sure, that's a LOT of revenue, but not even close to the potential sales from the dry AMD market.
UNLESS... ACT addresses more than the unmet platelet demand. In such a scenario, they would be within the same ballpark (if we're talking conservative estimates like capturing 1% of the overall global dry AMD market). Just imho, I tend to think ACT will capture at least 10% of the dry AMD market, which could put us at $50B-100B in revenue. That's the reason why I wouldn't put platelets in the same category as the RPEs.
It would be great to see an upfront payment from a platelet jv. Imagine what we could do with $500M or so...
Boy, I'm really curious how Rabin arrived at market estimates for platelets that exceed the potential RPE market. I can't imagine the units will be anywhere near the price of RPE cell injections (assuming injections are priced from $5k-10k). The demand would have to be much, much larger than 1-2 million units of platelets to exceed the RPE market, unless the cost per unit is a lot more than I think.