According to Gary's estimate of potential revenues of a 1% penetration at $10k per procedure netting $5B, there would have to be:
500,000 procedures per year,
1,666 procedures per day (assuming 300 working days per year),
277 procedures per hour (assuming a 6 hour working day),
166,600,000 cells provided per day (assuming 100,000 cells per procedure), and
49,980,000,000 cells provided per year
I wonder if they can do it......or produce that much.....or have enough doctors to meet that.....all within a few years (assuming they are approved for meeting an unmet medical need.
I sure hope so.
A few points here:
1. There is no reason why the earliest injections won't cost a lot more than Gary suggested in taht initial projection, which makes it easy to far exceed that number;
2. If you watched the video of the first procedure, you'd know that it's a standard injection to the eye, and millions of the same patients receive injections to their eyes every month. There is no special equipment, and the procedure took, approximately 5 minutes to inject, with a standard tool that every hospital has, the cells.
3. The cells replicate in mass quantities, so I doubt manufacturing or delivering them is the issue.
4. Do you honestly think that patients who are losing their eyesight, which, no matter how good or bad it is, can happen overnight if your diagnosed with AMD, would hesitate to get a 5 minute injection that would stop their disease?
I honestly don't see the issue. The cells are a syringe, and reproduce geometrically, by themselves. They are effectively GROWN. I don't think "production" will be the problem. Nor distribution.
Just an opinion, but this is an excercise in neophyte mental masturbation.
Good example MN. The original post does underscore the hopefully next level of issues that ACT will have and that's around manufacturing, marketing, distribution and training. All are more complicated in a regulated environment then you would think and may best be done by partnering.
iswhatitis2me...nice math. Good post. To continue the thought...
...there are over 19,000+ graduated ophthalmologists in the US who can perform this relatively simple injection. 500,000 annual procedures is about 2 procedures a month if done by every ophthalmologists. Let's say only 10% of ophthalmologists choose to do these procedures. At 500,000 annual procedures, that is about 22 per month...or one a day.
Cells are small, easily shipped and grow quickly.
1 percent seems easy. Screw that -- I want 100%! More than 2 million Americans age 50 and older have advanced AMD. Of course, if Medicare covers it, the treatment will be priced lower but with wider coverage. All good stuff.