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OCATA THERAPEUTICS, INC. Message Board

  • keep_investing keep_investing Feb 22, 2013 1:58 PM Flag

    ACTC's future value as seen by Keep

    This is an exercise in attempting to estimate ACTC's future share price potential. And I emphasize future, because currently there is no way that it can be intelligently valued, thats because it has a negative EPS and no earnings, in fact it survives due the selling of shares in the company. And to do this valuation will take using both facts and assumptions.
    FACTS:
    - AMD market for USA & Europe $25B - $30B, double when adding in the Asian markets
    - SMD world wide 700,000 patients, based on 1 in 10,000 contact this affliction, market $7B -$8B
    - shares outstanding 2.2B
    - injection per patient takes about 90 seconds
    ASSUMPTIONS:
    - $10K per injection
    - 50 clinics around the world to process and inject patients
    - estimate 4 patients per hour X 8 hours per day X 50 clinics X 260 days per year = 416,000 patients treated yearly
    - 416,000 patients X $10,000 per = $4.16B revenues per year
    - assume 60% profit, $4.16B X 0.60 = $2.496B earnings per year
    - calculate EPS = $2.496B / 2.2B shares = $1.1345 per share X 15(PE) = $17 per share
    - assume this can be accomplished over a 10 year period

    So there it is, crude, rude, and a conservative guesstimate, but it's an attempt to put some numbers behind this whole thing. And if anyone has more to add, please do.

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