This is an exercise in attempting to estimate ACTC's future share price potential. And I emphasize future, because currently there is no way that it can be intelligently valued, thats because it has a negative EPS and no earnings, in fact it survives due the selling of shares in the company. And to do this valuation will take using both facts and assumptions.
- AMD market for USA & Europe $25B - $30B, double when adding in the Asian markets
- SMD world wide 700,000 patients, based on 1 in 10,000 contact this affliction, market $7B -$8B
- shares outstanding 2.2B
- injection per patient takes about 90 seconds
- $10K per injection
- 50 clinics around the world to process and inject patients
- estimate 4 patients per hour X 8 hours per day X 50 clinics X 260 days per year = 416,000 patients treated yearly
- 416,000 patients X $10,000 per = $4.16B revenues per year
- assume 60% profit, $4.16B X 0.60 = $2.496B earnings per year
- calculate EPS = $2.496B / 2.2B shares = $1.1345 per share X 15(PE) = $17 per share
- assume this can be accomplished over a 10 year period
So there it is, crude, rude, and a conservative guesstimate, but it's an attempt to put some numbers behind this whole thing. And if anyone has more to add, please do.
Simple but revealing thought. Of course, there will be other costs and the gross margin will be much less than 60% which is not conservative. I would assume 30% gross margin to be conservative. Also, by the time the treatment is in the clinical stage, there may be an alternative(s) developed and the market share would shrink. In any case, this simple exercise gives an idea of the prospects of these products and shares' future value. Thanks, no matter what bashing idiots think.