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  • fred.daniels85 fred.daniels85 Aug 14, 2013 3:52 PM Flag

    bashers not welcome but all else can join in

    If I own 1 million shares and my buy in is at 8 cents, average cost. The company does a 30 to 1 reverse split, resulting in 2.7 billion would become 90 million outstanding shares, and my shares would then be quantity, 33,333??
    The price per share would become $ 2.10 dollars ?? correct so far??
    Then the market cap , or value of the company would then be o/s shares (X) price per share = $ 189,000,000 million ??

    From the conference call I extrapolated that the cost to make the solution is $ 100.00 dollars, and I assume that they would charge no less than $ 20,000.00 for the procedure. Obviously there would be other costs to add to the 100 dollars but even if those cost added up to $ 500.00 dollars, then wouldn't it be fair to assume that the profit per injection is approx. $ 19,500.00
    dollars. It has been stated many times this is a 55 BILLION dollar market ( worldwide ) two follow up questions:
    Is that $ 20,000.00 per eye??
    Is that 55 billion dollar market per year indefinitely, ? as humans will contract the disease, at a relative rate, ( and perhaps greater as the world population grows ) this, I assume is not a vaccine??, a , either cure reversal of blindness or halting the progression of the disease. ??

    In October if the above is even close, and they announce a cure for blindness for this disease, and the current market cap is $ 198 million, but the sales will be 55 billion, would then not the price per share ( given an expense @ $ 500.00 dollars )
    be the following:

    you would have approximately 27 million patients,worldwide, and the profit would be approximately $ 19,500.00 dollars per patient????

    Then wouldn't the profit be approximately 52 BILLION dollars, wouldn't then the price per share go to at least $ 500.00 per share??? approximately

    all answers are welcome

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    • Fred, fred fred fred......your ID is pretty new - are you a newbie investor?

      You have to be realistic unless you want everyone to put you on ignore. Nobody does a procedure for say your $20,000 figure (will assume that is both eyes) and walks away with $19,500 in their pocket - geeeze!
      Of course a huge percentage of the world's population, and/or their insurance providers (if they even have any med. insurance) can't afford $20 grand, or $10 grand for that matter. So your target market right off is going to be a lot less than the total MD population, or the company is going to be providing the procedure for much less than you are figuring; maybe, once all is said and done, ACTC walks with a profit margin of 30% (which is considered very good btw). Let's figure in 5 years they have had great trial success and managed to get the treatment approved under FDA's new super-speedy breakthrough classification, and let's also assume they have done the R/S but due to dilution they now have 400 M shares outstanding. Let's say the true paying market is $20 billion and ACTC has captured ~ 30% and is approaching a yearly revenue of $6 billion - slap on a P/S metric of say 9.5.....well, there you have a share price of roughly $140. Now if I am conservative here, and by chance ACTC could exceed a 30% profit margin by a sig. amount, then you could assume a somewhat corresponding increase in the valuation metrics and thus a potentially greater s/p.

      At this stage of the game (still groundfloor...train station just opening), these exercises are merely fanciful speculation; but if you have good timing, are nimble and lucky as well, a hell of a lot of money can be made speculating even before the train leaves the station.

    • Fred, i could be totally wrong but i remember it being estimated at $5,000 per eye. I think it was rabin that said it. Just my fuzzy memory so idk if im right. Steve

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Not exactly as ACTC will only penetrate a % of the total SMD/AMD market for actual $$$ results.

      The idea is to take the "treatment population" which could be only certain patients at a point in the disease as the target market out of 55 billion, but that population could increase depending upon treatment by indication and efficacy by study.

      SO let's say we have costs of $500 per dose but get 25% of the market of 55 billion. Then the market defined by 55 billion is really the outer bounds of total revenue. Thus, if the treatment is 10 to 20 K per eye needs insurance reimbursement by insurance companies or the government based upon saving dollars over patient life expectancy. This analysis then drive a reimbursement amount for healthcare providers (doctors) and then doctors buy dosages from ACTC. So assumption is that the insurance companies and government will see huge savings and agree to 10 to 20 k per eye.

      Still the 55 billion market is limited to 25% or 13.75 billion where our profit margin will be in the 1000s percentage points over cost.

      For discussion if your numbers are correct we could only make margin of 19.5 k per eye up to a certain market shares of treatable patients or 13.75 billion in this example.

      Either way ACTC would have 4 to 5 dollars in potential EPS at a huge market multiple of probably 35 in the beginning going down to 16 after saturation. Also highly dependent upon other programs which could make multiple continue to expand.

      All of this over say RS of 3.75 billion divided by 100 = 3.75 million shares. Equaling 13.75 gross margin / 3.75 shares or possibly up to $10 bucks EPS, but I say 4 to 5 because other costs of runing an organization like this and market comparable S, G & A runs at a rate to eat up the difference.

      • 1 Reply to krycap64
      • Your idea that ACTC will only receive 25 % of the 55 billion dollar market sounds wayyyy off base and I will support that easily.
        !) I assume you know of the slip from Dr Lanza that one of the patients went from 400/20 to 40 /20 therefore anyone could easily assume that regardless of the progression of the disease, the recovery is indeed doable!! And you would easily get the patients that are newly diagnosed and all in between.

        2) PLease bear in mind we have a zillion patents and we have orphan drug status which means we get an automatic 7 year exclusive to market and sell the product.
        I say we get all the market not a mere 25 %

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