With the continued great news with the human stem cell trials, I'm wondering why management isn't trying to secure a buyout? Certainly, this treatment would offer a large worldwide market and lots of profits for a big pharm.
It's not unreasonable to think of $5 Billion as a number when considering other recent buyouts.
That number could solve a number of current cash flow problems and make current management rich.
I think that it would also make current stock holders happy.
So, why aren't they looking at a buyout?
I'm not sure that I would agree to any notion that big pharms need more data and positive results before buying. If the results are really as good as we think, there is no need to wait. The early bird will get the ACTC worm.
Or, are they seeking one?????
There has been some excellent discussion and comments on this thread.
As I see it, the key issue is how much additional money does ACTC need to take this treatment and produce a successful world wide product? I don't know the answer and I don't think that anyone on this board does.
A billion shares at $.06 is only $60 Million. I say "only" because Dr. Hans Kiersted (spelling??) of spinal stem cell fame has repeatedly published in presentations that it takes about $1 Billion to bring a major new drug to market. Yes, that's right, $1 Billion. His number, not mine and I have seen nothing that refutes his claim.
If you don't like the $1 Billion, pick a number but remember that it IS EXPENSIVE to bring drugs to the market!!!
Considering where we are in the human testing and where we must go to get to a successful market, $60 Million just doesn't seem like enough to get there.
So, I'm back to the necessity of a buyout or some other vehicle to fund the rest of the development.
I would like to see ACTC's funding projections to get to the market. I think that we could blow away a lot of the smoke and conjecture. If these are available, I haven't seen them. Maybe someone could post them? However, I really don't think that ACTC has published this data. Hopefully, they have developed the numbers!!!
For what it's worth.
GR has said, and I agree, that the price for a JV will go up in Phase 2 exponentially. So we're basically 2 months away if the FDA gives the all clear on scuttling cohort 3 after their meeting with ACT in October. So if we can get a higher price in Phase 2 which could start in a couple months, why take a lowball JV or buyout now? The 500 million shares +/- shares, after lawsuits are paid for, are just insurance so the company doesn't appear desperate to the eventual bidders.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The important part is to see how ACTC will formulate the endpoints they try to achieve in phase two and three. This will happen in cooperation/ opinion with potential partners. If the potential partners find the goal realistic they will be highly interested in a JV. October will be the start of this evaluation process.
blackmarango, the powers that be at ACTC have made it clear they are not seeking and do not want a buyout and this does seem to be the posture with the most potential for ACTC and its investors. There are several areas of stem cell research and treatment in which ACTC is likely to be a leader. In each of those areas there are different companies/corporations that will be in a position to provide a maximum contribution to a partnership with ACTC. In the longer run ACTC is looking for several different partnerships in the several different areas they are developing. A buyout would only undercut the full potential of ACTC as well as the potential profit for investors.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Cash flow is one major reason that a buyout makes a lot of sense.
If ACTC needs to go into larger Phase II or much larger Phase III trials rather than the FDA Fast Track, where will they get the cash to fund these trials?
They might need more than they could raise with the extra Billion shares.
They just might have taken this major new technology as far as they financially can.
Unfortunately, we just don't know exactly what management's thoughts are for something like this.
you make a valid point. How much more do Big Pharma. We definetly got their attention. This is going to get interesting. Curious to see who bites first and what the offer is.. a JV or buyout. If a bidding war ensues. Could be fun.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Black, excellent point and some very good questions that you're bringing up. And it all goes back to our CEO & Chairman on why there hasen't been a JV or some type of merger. There's something very rotten in Denmark going on here. And as far as I can see, which isn't very far, because we're all being held in the dark by Gary, he's the rotten part in this senario.
easy: whether it's a piggy bank or a Golden Goose, the basic question is whether ACTC has the resources to bring the stem cell product to market or not.
Unless the PPS remarkably recovers in a hurry, I'd say the answer is NO.
Lacking internal financial resources, what are other options. That is the question that management should be addressing right now.
You and others need to decide whether a billion shares is a good or bad proposition before you vote.
I really wish that we knew more about the various options ACTC is considering. Of course, they probably won't tell us more citing all sorts of disclaimers!
Of course, IMO.