This move is really dangerious - Alot of people are going to get hurt
I see longs congratulating each-other, I see people making comparisons to Netflix as a once beaten down stock surging ahead. Euphoria is everywhere.
What you don't understand is that ZERO value has been created for shareholders. NOTHING has been passed, nothing has been done to increase sales, increase profits... Nada... Zip. In the 4th Quarter of 2012 you will see that CZR's shareholder equity will be negative. Meaning shares of CZR are basically worthless. If the company were to go belly up, shareholders would owe money (except bankruptcy law prevents that now-a-days.)
No stock can go up without the profits and sales following. In fact, sales and profits probably will stay flat to probably negative since hurricane sandy hit NJ. CZR is defying the laws of Financial physics, and in the end the financials always win out.
The stock was trading around $7-$8 with the same financials CZR possesses today as it did yesterday and as it will for probably many more quarters to come. Yet, with 1 state pushing through potential legislation for the back end of the year the stock goes crazy and almost jumps 100%. New Jersey will not be able to save CZR or make a meaningful impact on sales or profits.
In Conclusion, the true value of CZR shares is probably closer to $7-$8 as the financials dictated before the HEADLINES changed the equity price. Also, the headlines did not change the financials. And even if the headlines were to change the financials, it would not do so for a very long time.
Very few people will listen to this simple but accurate analysis. The people who don't understand this are going to attack me. People only care about which direction the stock price is moving ( a very flawed analysis.) I simply just price equity. And the CZR equity ain't worth this 80% premium.
Good luck to you. And especially to the people who think this move is for real. Your going to get hurt.
I have no positions in CZR. I have not been shorting CZR and I don't plan to. As a Pro who has made his money I'm just trying to help.
Didn't read your post past the part about longs congratulating each other. Do you think the longs drove this to it's current level? Last I checked the short ratio was 19. NINETEEN!! The WSOP brand just got a value boost by a factor of 40. This ain't over by a longshot.
Gambling rule life02short when there are more puts than calls, it is time to remember the house will always win , which ever weighs the heaviest for them. I guess I am just a contrarian but monday the market will decide which way to go and I hope Iam on the right side. Oh, I bought 3500 at $13.47 so we will see. GL