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Harmonic, Inc. (HLIT) Message Board

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  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Jan 21, 2008 8:30 PM Flag

    The Week Ahead

    Perhaps, but I can wait the ten days necessary for the real numbers to rain on the short's HLIT parade.

    And I can wait the one day for the real numbers to rain on the short's Apple parade.

    And I can wait the three days for the real numbers to rain on the short's Microsoft parade.

    It's been a long season but at last the rains are here. Bears only rule when there are no benchmarks against which to measure their "sky is falling" rants.

    I count at least three benchmarks in the next ten days.

    Not including Philips which announced today. For a glimpse of reality read on:

    "Philips boosted by global spread

    By Michael Steen in Amsterdam
    Monday Jan 21 2008 19:15

    Philips said on Monday its businesses - ranging from consumer electronics to lighting and healthcare - would be able to weather an economic turndown thanks to booming business in emerging markets.

    The Dutch group's fourth-quarter results beat expectations and showed an improvement in margins. It said net income had risen to €1.39bn ($2bn), against €680m a year ago, helped by sales of stakes in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM) and LG Philips as part of its strategy to focus on lighting, medical and consumer lifestyle. It proposed a raised dividend of €0.70 a share.

    Philips said its full-year margin, on an earnings before interest, tax and amortisation basis, rose to 7.7 per cent from 5.2 per cent a year ago. It avoided precise forecasts for 2008, but said it was on track to raise that margin to 10 per cent by 2010. "[We have] all-in-all a robust portfolio with an ability to weather times of slower economic growth and an excellent geographic spread, with 30 per cent of our sales across all divisions coming from emerging markets," said Gerard Kleisterlee, chief executive."

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    • Yes, I read that and also rememember you saying that INTC was going to rain on the short's parade. Look what happened to Intel for having a good quarter that just barely missed some artificial number. To reiterate (again and again), I am NOT saying to you or this board that HLIT sucks. They do manage to hose up some timing occasionally, but they are a viable company. What I AM saying to you and the board is that events are driving HLIT, not the other way around. HLIT could come in with $90 million in revenue and 18 cents in earnings and the market will ignore it and move on. Timing and the credit debacle are not on HLIT's side, or MSFT's or AAPL's either. Unfortunate, but nonetheless, true.

      • 1 Reply to m6s_cool
      • "What I AM saying to you and the board is that events are driving HLIT"

        ***

        No, events are not driving HLIT and the market at the moment. Hysteria is driving the market. Unless you want to call hysteria an event. Whatever.

        Performance is supposed to be driving stock prices and will again. Hysteria brings both pain and buying opportunities. My only regret is moving way too soon on the hysteria. Hence my pain.

        You are right about Intel - a miss was as good as a mile in the midst of the freaking out. And there is no doubt that Apple and Microsoft and Cisco and Qualcomm and others will have to actually exceed estimates and guidance to make a difference. And HLIT will too.

        I just can't figure out why you are freaking out. You said you liquidated almost everything quite a while back. If I had I would be feeling pretty cocky at the moment. Your worst exposure is supposed to be HLIT at 9.30.

        I almost want to laugh because Wall Street wanted everyone to freak and the media flapped their arms like crazy. It's like the person who yells fire in a crowded theater and then gets trampled by the exiting mob. The shorts/bears may find that this panic consumes them too.

        Hysteria can get out of hand and it appears to have done that world-wide yesterday. And for no good reason other than the scumbags who would destroy the market, economic stability and the country to make an extra buck. Make no mistake - the Wall Street arm-flappers purposely spread this panic to the rest of the world.

        I can't decide if I think that stupidity, ignorance or greed are the greatest dynamics now operating in the market.

        You have a highly developed capacity for assuming the worst in all situations. Unfortunately I think you sometimes find exactly what you are looking for.

        Just me but I am looking for a way out of the chaos rather than an opening to burrow further in...

 
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