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Harmonic, Inc. (HLIT) Message Board

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  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Jan 22, 2008 6:01 PM Flag

    The Week Ahead

    Yes, another mild disappointment.

    But actually I'm not too disappointed with these 10 percent drops. Especially since the numbers are so strong.

    I think they represent improvement in the market's irrational disposition.

    And I see the market's ability to beat stocks senseless is coming to an end. Look at what a difference a day makes. Yesterday we were looking at world meltdown. Today certainly something less than that and maybe even some optimism.

    I see no reason or ability to pre-judge Microsoft. Apple is the company I knew the least about. Microsoft has been ramping up on Vista and Office. I am only confident that they will also put up strong numbers.

    What you have to remember is 12 hours ago the markets were telling us that we should be in total crisis mode and huge gaping chunks of value needed to be removed from every stock. Today you see yet another big tech making billions of dollars and continuing to grow profits. Maybe not blow out profits but a very, very long ways away from the "sky is falling".

    What we will find when tech after tech puts up good numbers is that a small adjustment is the only one needed and that most have already received an excessive adjustment.

    Today was the first day in a long time where we saw that hysteria was not going to rule the day. The shorts have to be devastated. Their biggest payday ever was snatched from their pockets while they were on the way to the bank.

    Of course they are determined scumbags and will be back at it tomorrow. We just have to load the shotgun with more salvos of good tech earnings and keep shooting them in the ass until they lose their enthusiasm for coming over the wall. They looked a little punch-drunk today. We now know that they are vulnerable. An important psychological change.

    An awful lot of earnings yet to come. Perhaps another Fed cut next week. Let's not throw in the towel simply because Apple's mere $1.6 billion in quarterly profits (57 percent increase) was over-shadowed by conservative first quarter guidance.

    I think you need to decide whether you want to be right or you want to be happy. You seem to want bigger and bigger catastrophes to prove that your warnings were prudent. Well, we already know your warnings were prudent. But it doesn't mean that you won't still have been right if things start to improve. I think it's your time to demonstrate that you can look at things the way they are instead of the way you want them to be.

    The sky isn't falling. It's just got a couple of holes in it. Look at the massive profits big tech is cranking out. Let's stop pretending that the numbers don't matter.

    The numbers matter.
    Rationality matters.
    Restoring integrity to the market matters.
    Getting rid of the hype matters.
    Resisting the chaos matters.
    And buying when prices are beaten down matters.

    When the market turns and heads up it is going to do it in a hurry. We should all be preparing for that...

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